Commodities Update Surge in China's soybean imports likely to be unsustainable China’s imports of key commodities grew strongly again last month despite lacklustre industrial activity. However, the growth mainly reflects temporary factors such as earlier shipments from Brazil... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further tightening likely in the Philippines The central bank in the Philippines (BSP) left interest rates on hold today but hiked the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by a further 100 basis points, as it looks to reduce rising risks in the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Growth slowdown to delay rate hikes in Norway until 2016 The Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today and we continue to think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking until 2016. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices & RICS Survey (Apr.) Halifax reported that house prices fell marginally for the second consecutive month in April. However, the RICS survey offered little encouragement that these falls are about to usher in a period of... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Putin’s shift in tone a small step in the right direction President Putin’s call on pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine to postpone a referendum on independence scheduled for this Sunday has once again raised hopes that a diplomatic resolution to the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Low valuations should support EM equities One reason to be relatively optimistic about emerging market equities is their low valuation relative to their developed market counterparts. For example, price/12m forward earnings ratios are around... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (Mar.14) March’s industrial production data for key euro-zone countries suggested that the recovery in the sector failed to pick up any momentum and that even Germany experienced a modest slowdown. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Markets stable as early vote count suggests comfortable ANC win Voting has concluded in South Africa’s general election, and the early signs are that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) will retain a comfortable majority in the national assembly. Financial... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Focus How good are the prospects for London office rents? Occupier demand in London’s City and West End office markets has exceeded our expectations in recent quarters. And the outlook for demand is also positive. This will eventually prompt a supply... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Apr.) Today's trade data are more upbeat about the state of foreign demand than the recovery in the headline numbers suggests. If we strip out exports to Hong Kong and Taiwan, which were most affected by... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Growth slowdown to delay rate hikes in Norway until 2016 The Norges Bank left its monetary policy stance unchanged today and we continue to think that a slowdown in the economy will prevent the Bank hiking until 2016. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack West outperforming East The US is enjoying a strong rebound after its weather-induced slowdown, the UK has extended its period of rapid growth into Q2 and the recovery in the euro-zone has gained momentum. On the other hand... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC raises prospect of ending “forward guidance” The Polish MPC hinted at today’s post-meeting press conference that it may not extend its pledge to leave interest rates unchanged beyond Q3. While this could be interpreted as a sign that the MPC is... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Dwindling supply growth will ultimately support lead prices We expect lead prices to fall in the near term, reflecting concerns about the outlook for China’s demand and a relatively comfortable stock position. However, the market is likely to fall into deficit... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update El Niño to have limited impact on real economy The El Niño weather event that is expected later this year may cause some localised disruptions, but it is unlikely to have a marked impact on overall economic activity in the region. 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
