UK Data Response Industrial Production and Trade (Mar.) Whilst March’s industrial production data indicated that the manufacturing recovery remains robust, the latest trade data provided tentative signs of some rebalancing towards the external sector. 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus What will the pension changes mean for the housing market? The changes to the pension system due to come into effect next year will impact the economy in a variety of ways. But while it may lead to some rise in the demand for homes as retirees search for... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: Aggressive easing unlikely Interest rates in Peru were left unchanged at 4% last night and we do not foresee aggressive monetary easing in the next 18 months. While economic growth looks set to slow, we think that a large... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (Apr 14.) Worries about deflation following the release of today’s price data from China are overdone. Last month's drop in consumer price inflation was due to a sharp fall of vegetable price inflation, which... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rates in Korea to remain on hold until 2015 With the economic recovery gaining momentum, but inflationary pressures still low, the Bank of Korea’s (BoK) decision to keep interest rates on hold came as no surprise. We think interest rates will... 9th May 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Rents and yields mark time in most markets Evidence that the first quarter’s generally encouraging economic news is providing a boost for non-euro-zone European property markets is patchy and unconvincing. Excluding the UK, only Istanbul... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will the US stock market ride out a shift in Fed policy? The cost of corporate equity is much lower than the cost of corporate debt in the US. This is very different to the situation that prevailed during the dot com bubble and is a reason to think that the... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB to cut rates and maybe more next month The ECB signalled very strongly at today’s press conference that policy will be loosened next month. A small cut in the main refinancing rate seems like the least that the Bank could do and is... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch – rise in inflation eats into Dilma’s lead The latest opinion polls suggest that President Rousseff remains the clear favourite to win a second term in office in October’s elections. But there is evidence that rising inflation is eating into... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update What might an al-Sisi presidency hold in store for Egypt’s economy? Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, the leader of last summer’s “second revolution”, looks set to sweep to victory in Egypt’s presidential election, scheduled for 26th - 27th May. In this Watch, we take a closer... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: manufacturing sector to drag on GDP growth Following a solid performance at the end of last year, the latest hard manufacturing production data from South Africa suggest that the sector dragged on overall GDP growth in Q1. What’s more, a pick... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Low inflation keeps the MPC on hold While the strength of the housing market may have made for an animated discussion at today’s MPC meeting, the benign inflation outlook suggests that tighter monetary policy is still not a near-term... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Weakness of EM exports not just a result of China distortions Emerging market (EM) exports continued to fall in March. Admittedly, this can in part be explained by distortions in the Chinese data, which appear to have persisted in April too. However, the bigger... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia on the verge of tightening monetary policy Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) opted to keep its policy rate at 3.0% today, but the case for monetary tightening is building, and we think BNM could hike rates as early as its next meeting in July. 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Recovery robust but housing market concerns build The last month’s data has provided further evidence that the UK economy is enjoying a ‘Goldilocks’ scenario of solid, but not excessive, growth and low inflation. The latest PMI surveys suggest that... 8th May 2014 · 1 min read
