US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Apr.14) The rise in mortgage applications for home purchase in April, alongside the recent pick-up in the Fed’s measure of the value of residential mortgage lending, are encouraging signs that mortgage... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank's household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How much momentum is there in euro-zone property yields? Absent another shock, over the next few quarters, further falls in the peripheral property yields are likely. However, with deflation lurking in the background and yields already low, core yields are... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Have the ECB's contingencies been met? The latest economic data have left the ECB’s two “contingencies” for further policy action – a worsening of the medium-term inflation outlook and an unwarranted tightening of the money markets –... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update El Niño-related food inflation worries in India premature India's high dependence on rainfall for crop production makes it particularly vulnerable to the dry El Niño weather conditions that many weather forecasters expect this year. Concerns over the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack It's all about the consumption tax For now, Japan's economy is following the script of the 1997 consumption tax hike. Consumer spending surged in a last-minute shopping spree before the tax was raised, and inflation soared in the... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Rising supply is no short-term threat to rents The latest RICS survey painted a picture of increasingly robust occupier demand for commercial property in all sectors, with industrial faring particularly well. To be fair, the survey also showed... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Deflation to trump Riksbank’s household debt concerns The Riksbank’s report on household indebtedness underscores the magnitude of the problem and the need for it to be addressed. But we continue to think that the Bank will cut interest rates as... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Mar.) While Canada's external merchandise trade surplus shrunk unexpectedly in March, from a bigger than previously estimated surplus in February, the more discouraging news was the declines in export and... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update QE taper does not explain Q1 GDP weakness A few commentators have suggested that the weakness in first-quarter GDP, which may even have contracted slightly, could be due to the Fed's decision late last year to begin tapering its monthly asset... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Mar.) The modest decline in the trade deficit to $40.4bn in March, from $41.9bn, was a smaller narrowing than the BEA had assumed in its initial estimate of first-quarter GDP growth. Accordingly, when added... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Mar.) House price gains have held steady at 11%-12% y/y for a year now. But the tight supply conditions which have driven these gains are now loosening, pointing to a moderation in price rises before too... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Mar.) & Final PMIs (Apr.) March’s retail sales data suggested that the euro-zone economic recovery may finally be broadening out to include households, while the final PMIs for April pointed to a stronger pace of recovery at... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Global interest rates likely to diverge sharply With the world economy gradually recovering, it is tempting to assume that there will be a global monetary policy tightening cycle in the coming years. However, we think US interest rates will return... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Drop in PMIs dashes hopes for sustained recovery in EMs April’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing across the emerging world softened further last month. While there are signs that manufacturing growth in the smaller EMs is starting to lose steam, the... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
