US Data Response Retail Sales (Apr 14.) April’s retail sales release suggested that GDP growth in the first quarter was a bit stronger than previously thought, but that the rebound in the second quarter may turn out to be a little smaller... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q1 GDP data to show strengthening recovery in Central Europe This week’s preliminary first quarter GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe are likely to show that the region’s economic recovery strengthened at the start of the year, in spite of fears of... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Outlook Property hits its sweet spot Reflecting an upgrade to our medium-term Central London office rent expectations, our forecast for all-property capital value growth in 2014 has risen from 8% to 9%, and for 2015 from 5% to about 5.5%... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (May 14) The fifth consecutive decline in ZEW investor sentiment in May suggests that the German economic recovery might not gain much pace from here. 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rise in the Turkish lira belies external vulnerabilities The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has taken many analysts – ourselves included – by surprise, not least because the economy still has large external vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Apr 14.) April’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor indicates that consumers loosened their purse strings over the Easter holidays. And the positive outlook for employment and real pay suggests that the consumer... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Soybean supply set to be more than ample this year The latest WASDE report, released on Friday, supports our view that supplies of grains and soybeans are likely to be abundant this season. This should lead to sharp prices falls, especially of... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine economy probably slipped into recession in Q1 After contracting in the fourth quarter of last year, a poor start to this year means that the Argentine economy is probably already in a technical recession. Revisions to the government’s methodology... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Positive signs on home sales and mortgage lending Fed Chair Janet Yellen expressed worries about the resilience of the housing recovery in her testimony to Congress last week. But the recent sales and mortgage lending figures have been more... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi Arabian economy looks set to slow from here on Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi Arabian economy grew at a robust rate of over 5% y/y in Q1. However, growth looks set to slow over the next twelve to eighteen months as the rebound in the oil... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s next government forced to build on sluggish economy As voting in India’s general election draws to a close today, another batch of disappointing data has underlined the economic challenges that will face the new government. 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Focus What another five years of ANC rule means for South Africa Victory for the ruling African National Congress (ANC) in South Africa’s general election last week was largely expected and, as such, financial markets have taken the result in their stride. However... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Can the Financial Policy Committee cool the housing market? The FPC has a number of policy tools at its disposal should it decide it needs to cool the housing market. Provided it acts with sufficient conviction, there is every chance that the new tools will... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Is the Korean won overvalued? Fears that a strong won will undermine Korea’s export competitiveness look overdone. If anything, the won looks slightly undervalued, while prospects for the country’s exporters are better than they... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Focus Can the Financial Policy Committee cool the housing market? The FPC has a number of policy tools at its disposal should it decide it needs to cool the housing market. Provided it acts with sufficient conviction, there is every chance that the new tools will... 12th May 2014 · 1 min read
