Europe Commercial Property Update Are Milan office rents poised to recover? In the past few quarters, modest gains in services employment have helped to put a floor under Milan office rents. But the most recent employment expectations data have weakened and we doubt that the... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Mar.) Manufacturing continued to recover in March from the severe winter that dampened sales volumes late last year. With sales almost fully recovered now, we expect further gains to be more modest, as... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices & Industrial Production (Apr.) A widespread pick up in price pressures is now underway, which we think will result in both the CPI and PCE measures of core inflation rising above the Fed’s 2% target. Meanwhile, the fall in... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Inflation Report stems rise in market interest rates Speculation that the Bank of England’s May Inflation Report would show that the Monetary Policy Committee is preparing to raise interest rates proved to be unfounded, prompting a significant fall back... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Explaining the divergence between the G7 economies GDP data published today show Japan joining Canada, the US, Germany and France in regaining their pre-crisis levels of output. With the UK nearly there too, Italy is the clear laggard among the G7. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response CML Lending Trends (2014 Q1) Advances for house purchase to first-time buyers and buy-to-let investors are growing at a similar robust pace. But first-time buyers are entering the market by borrowing record amounts in comparison... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Which EMs will benefit from China’s rebalancing? China’s economy is likely to slow over the coming years, as it rebalances toward a more sustainablegrowth model. But that won’t necessarily be bad news for all of the EM world. In fact, strong... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Something has got to give in the global steel industry A sharp increase in US steel imports from Asia in the first quarter serves to highlight the overcapacity and overproduction of Asia’s steel industries. Surplus Asian output is undermining the global... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q1) The disappointingly modest rise in euro-zone GDP in Q1 will have done little to reduce the risk of deflation in the region and the stark divergence between the major economies only adds to... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe’s recovery strengthened in Q1 The preliminary estimates of first quarter GDP for Central and South Eastern Europe provide further evidence of a gradual recovery in the region. The main factor behind the improvement in growth... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Do rising term premia pose a threat to US Treasuries? Some observers appear to be concerned that the onset of US monetary tightening will drive up long-term Treasury yields via a substantial increase in “term premia”. But a new set of unofficial data... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update India’s wholesale inflation eases, but RBI unlikely to budge India’s wholesale price inflation dipped unexpectedly last month, but this is unlikely to persuade the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to abandon its hawkish stance on monetary policy any time soon. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Little sign of a turnaround in Saudi consumer spending The latest data suggest that Saudi household spending is still relatively sluggish and, with fiscal policy set to become less supportive over the coming years, we’re not anticipating a marked... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Confidence (Apr.) Despite a small rise in purchasing intentions, consumer confidence remained at very weak levels last month. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update How much could higher female employment boost GDP? Raising female participation in the labour force to the same rate as that for men could boost Japan’s GDP by as much as 13%. However, no advanced economy has achieved parity on this basis, and a more... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Preliminary) Japan's economy expanded rapidly ahead of the sales tax hike. While growth is set to slump in Q2, we remain confident that the recovery will resume in the second half of the year. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
