Japan Data Response External trade (Apr.) While the plunge in the trade shortfall in April may have been too strong to last, the deficit should remain low as domestic demand has weakened after the sales tax hike. 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Sedlabanki on hold, but rates to rise later this year Iceland’s central bank kept interest rates unchanged at 6% at its meeting today, despite raising its medium-term forecasts for GDP growth. We continue to think that the Sedlabanki will have to raise... 21st May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Economy to benefit from a larger wealth effect The recent upward revisions to our equity price forecasts imply that the boost to GDP growth this year from the wealth effect will be larger than we previously thought. This is one reason why, despite... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Monetary conditions ease further Bond yields and interest rate expectations have declined during the past few weeks. Moreover, our measure of the monetary base in advanced economies has expanded further as the Fed and BoJ have... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Modest interest rate hikes still likely in Nigeria The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.0% today but, with inflation likely to accelerate and the naira likely to come under renewed pressure over the coming months, modest... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Belgian elections unlikely to break the reform deadlock Upcoming elections in Belgium are unlikely to deliver a decisive victory to any one party. With the main parties divided over fundamental economic and political reforms, we doubt that a new coalition... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Fragile recovery hampering Italy's belt tightening The unexpected drop in Italy’s GDP in Q1 underlines the fragility of the country’s recovery and further undermines attempts to bring down its crushing public debt load. 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Apr.) While CPI inflation rose in April, this largely reflected a temporary boost from the later timing of Easter this year. Underlying price pressures have remained subdued and we continue to think that... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1) Norway’s mainland economy continued to hum along at a decent pace in Q1, but the underlying drivers of growth are weakening. 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian pound may fall further as CBE reduces support The fall in the Egyptian pound in recent weeks is significant given that the central bank had maintained a tight grip on the currency over the past year. No official explanation has been provided for... 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update External outlook upbeat for Singapore Today’s GDP data showed that Singapore's economy started the year better than previously thought. Recovering demand from advanced economies should support growth for the rest of 2014. 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Has the rally in euro-zone sovereign credit spreads run its course? 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Norwegian GDP (Q1 14) Norway’s mainland economy continued to hum along at a decent pace in Q1, but the underlying drivers of growth are weakening. 20th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What role for exchange rate policy? In the majority of advanced economies, policymakers allow the exchange rate to be determined by the currency markets. We think they are likely to continue doing so for the foreseeable future, for... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
