Africa Economics Update SARB holds rates steady, but door still open for future hikes The recent strength of the rand allowed the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to keep interest rates on hold today. But given that South Africa is still among the most vulnerable EMs to a slowdown in... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Price pressures are strengthening There is now enough evidence to conclude that price pressures are strengthening. The increase in CPI inflation to 2.0% in April left it in line with the Fed’s target and core inflation rose to an... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Margins remain under pressure While real household spending is continuing to pick up strongly, retailers have remained under pressure to offer generous discounts. Indeed, the retail sales deflator fell into negative territory in... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack Industrial occupier market upturn gathers steam There was a 0.1%m/m increase in all-property rental values in April, causing the annual growth rate to edge up from 1.2% to 1.3%. Retail rents continue to struggle, but, by contrast, the office sector... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Central Europe likely to outperform Over the next few years, a gradual recovery in economic activity should support rising occupier demand and rental values in most non-euro-zone European commercial property markets. But with high... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Peripheral markets move into the spotlight We anticipate that commercial property markets in the euro-zone will deliver modest gains over the remainder of this year and next as the underperformance of many markets in the region’s peripheral... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A positive step on local government debt Allowing local governments to issue bonds is a key step towards boosting transparency and encouraging stronger oversight over fiscal spending. But a broader rebalancing of the revenues and spending... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey cuts rates in spite of high inflation and external risks Following today’s surprise move by the Turkish central bank to lower its one-week repo rate, it looks like the MPC will continue to ease policy over the coming months. But given the country’s... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Manufacturing data stabilise, but concerns remain Today’s flash manufacturing PMI data for China suggest that the economy is stabilising. While stronger export orders and manufacturing activity are positive news for commodity prices, the commodity... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB lending scheme would have serious limitations The ECB seems increasingly likely to unveil a new scheme to boost lending to the private sector, perhaps as soon as its June policy meeting. We would welcome such a scheme, but its effectiveness will... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Second Estimate (Q1) & Public finances (Apr.) The second estimate of Q1 GDP provided more evidence that the recovery is based on solid foundations. But April’s public finances made for less encouraging reading. 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Focus Will Egypt’s election be a turning point for the economy? Egypt’s upcoming presidential election has cast the spotlight back onto the country’s bumpy transition to democracy. Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who led last summer’s “second revolution”, is widely expected... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Bumpy road ahead for Lat Am markets Currencies, equities and bonds have all fared well so far this month after a turbulent past year. While we expect bouts of financial market volatility as US monetary policy becomes less accommodative... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (May 14) May’s PMIs suggested that the euro-zone recovery remains lacklustre and highlighted the continued divergence between France and Germany. 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (May.) Today's PMI reading suggests that downwards pressure on the manufacturing sector has eased markedly. It provides further evidence that stronger external demand, along with the rebound in... 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (May) The inaugural flash manufacturing PMI confirmed that the weakness caused by the consumption tax hike should be short-lived. 22nd May 2014 · 1 min read
