Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt rates on hold, al-Sisi election victory unlikely to mean cuts Although the Egyptian central bank left interest rates on hold today, there is growing speculation that, following Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s decisive victory in the recent presidential election, rate... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Aluminium prices continue to tread a thin line Strong growth in demand and supply bottlenecks will offer some support to aluminium prices and premiums this year, despite a backdrop of Chinese overproduction and high global stocks. As long as a... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Lower jobless claims highlight labour market strength The fall in weekly initial jobless claims to a seven-year low suggests payroll employment grew by around 230,000 in May. Although this may not prevent the unemployment rate from rebounding to 6.4%... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch All eyes on the FPC While the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will leave policy on hold again at its meeting on 4th and 5th of June (announcement noon on the 5th), it is clear that some members are getting closer to... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch Negative interest rates are less radical than they sound The biggest monetary policy event coming up is likely to be next week’s ECB’s policy-setting meeting, not least because we think the Governing Council will cut its deposit rate to below zero. If so... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets rebound as Ukraine concerns take a back seat Russian equities and the ruble have been the region’s best performers over the past month following conciliatory remarks from Russia’s President Putin as well as Petro Poroshenko’s victory in Ukraine... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady, but some bright spots Growth in the emerging world as a whole was steady at around 4.5% y/y over the first few months of the year, but there are several bright spots. Growth has picked up in some of the more open... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil leaves rates unchanged but further hikes possible in 2015 Brazil’s central bank (BCB) called a halt to its tightening cycle last night and now seems unlikely to make any changes in interest rates until after October’s presidential elections. However, it’s... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Philippines economy likely to rebound from Q1 slowdown GDP growth in the Philippines slowed in Q1, but the breakdown of the data was more encouraging than the headline numbers. The outlook remains upbeat. We expect a rebound over the coming quarters... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) Unsurprisingly, retail sales fell sharply in April following the consumption tax hike, but we remain confident that the recovery in household consumption will resume in the second half of the year. 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts not the solution to Turkey’s competitiveness problem The Turkish government is becoming increasingly vocal in its demands for the central bank to cut interest rates, arguing that high interest rates risk making the lira overvalued which would damage... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Low office and retail yields in Vienna justified for now A surge in Austrian property investment has helped to drive Vienna office and retail yields to record lows. These yields will not be sustainable once interest rates and bond yields normalise. But... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Shale will drive local housing market outperformance North Dakota owes its position as the strongest performing housing market in the US to the scale of shale oil and gas production in the State. Housing markets in a number of the other States sharing... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Higher inflation won’t prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although inflation has been firmer than the Bank had expected, due to higher energy prices and... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (May & Q2) Although May’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey suggested that growth in retail spending may slow from recent stellar rates, it still indicated that the consumer recovery has remained robust in the... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
