Global Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to stronger global growth in Q2 Final manufacturing PMIs for May support the view that global growth is likely to pick up in Q2 after a weak start to the year, due to a rebound in the US and stabilisation in China. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC strikes a more dovish tone The Polish National Bank’s Governor, Marek Belka, was more dovish at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, and didn’t rule out the possibility of a cut in interest rates this year. However... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new measure of labour availability A new measure of the availability of labour places another question mark over the Fed’s belief that there is much more slack in the labour market than the unemployment rate suggests. This supports our... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: No evidence of a pre-election giveaway… yet The latest data do not contain much evidence of a pre-election giveaway in Brazil but President Rousseff’s slide in the opinion polls since the start of the year, coupled with a stagnant economy and a... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Apr. 14) CoreLogic house price data for April show that the annual pace of house price gains moderated for the second consecutive month. While the process still has some way to go, the data add to the evidence... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing strengthens a touch on China rebound May’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing strengthened a little last month, having softened for most of the past half a year. There was a welcome improvement in the PMIs of the BRICs, particularly... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is the euro-zone turning Japanese? There is a real and growing danger that the euro-zone enters a Japanese-style bout of flat or falling prices. But even a prolonged period of low positive inflation would seriously hamper the... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash CPI (May) & Unemployment (Apr.) May’s fall in euro-zone inflation and the still high level of unemployment in April will add to the pressure on the ECB to provide more policy support in order to address the growing risks of... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update The latest salvo in the war on coal The rules proposed by the US Environmental Protection Agency should ultimately serve to reduce demand for coal and put downward pressure on prices, even if there are lengthy legal challenges. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Construction PMI (May 14) and Mergers & Acquisitions (Q1 14) Today’s data releases covering construction sector activity and mergers & acquisitions (M&A) deals do nothing to challenge our forecast for a steady improvement in rental value growth over the rest of... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update PMIs highlight Egypt’s bumpy recovery May’s ‘whole economy’ PMI data show that, although the Egyptian economy is faring better than it was last summer, growth is sluggish. And looking ahead, in spite of the optimism following Abdel Fattah... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (May 14) The Nationwide reported a 0.7% m/m rise in house prices in May. This reflects the fact that, despite the recent dip in mortgage approvals, housing demand is still outpacing the supply of homes on the... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus How much upside is there for Spanish office rents? Despite dropping by 40% since 2008, we are not convinced that prime rental values in the main Spanish office markets are now obviously too low. While we do envisage a recovery over the next few years... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Rate cuts unlikely any time soon in India The central bank left interest rates unchanged today, as expected. Looking ahead, rate cuts are unlikely any time soon despite subpar economic growth as consumer price inflation remains high. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Australia set for an extended period of low rates The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left its policy rate unchanged at 2.5% today, and once again said that it does not expect to make any changes in the near term. Given that the economy is likely to... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) The ongoing fall in basic pay shows that the increases agreed upon in the spring wage negotiations have so far not filtered through to employees not covered by these talks. 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
