US Economics Weekly The deleveraging process is largely over The bulk of the necessary deleveraging process, especially in the private sector, appears to have been completed. This means that when the Fed starts to raise interest rates in the middle of next year... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Can manufacturing revive growth in India and Indonesia? A strong manufacturing sector would go some way to reviving the economic fortunes of India and Indonesia. The challenges are formidable. But, with a new prime minister in India, and Indonesia set to... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly How reliable are Japan’s preliminary GDP estimates? The two preliminary estimates of GDP are among the most widely followed indicators of Japan’s economy. The good news is that neither of these early estimates displays major biases relative to the... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Can macro-prudential policies prevent bubbles? If policy-makers hope that macro-prudential measures alone will prevent asset price bubbles from occurring, they may well be disappointed. In principle, these regulations should be able to dampen... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update BCB’s inflation headache goes from bad to worse The larger-than-expected rise in Brazil inflation in May leaves it on course to breach the upper bound of its target range over the coming months. This would be a major blow to the central bank... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (May) The 25,800 rebound in employment in May wasn't quite enough to reverse fully the slightly bigger decline in the previous month and it leaves the level of employment barely higher over the past six... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can other EMs match the growth in China's metal demand? With China’s economy slowing and moving out of its most commodity-intensive phase of development, attention is turning to other developing countries and whether they can replicate China’s consumption... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (May) The robust 217,000 increase in non-farm payrolls in May is another illustration that the economy is back on the right track after the earlier weather-related weakness. 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Iceland GDP (Q1) The small fall in Icelandic GDP in the first quarter of 2014 was somewhat disappointing but we do not think that this marks the start of a renewed deterioration in the economy. 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ECB and what it means for Central & Eastern Europe Yesterday’s move by the ECB is another reason to think that monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will remain loose for longer than most people expect. However, the impact of the ECB’s... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (Apr.) April’s trade figures suggested that the economy is still struggling to rebalance towards exports. And since the impact of sterling’s rise on exports has probably not been felt yet, the recovery is... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production & Trade (Apr.) April’s German industrial production and trade data added to signs that the recovery in the euro-zone’s largest economy may already be slowing. 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Growing pains Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is likely to remain one of the world’s best performing regions over the next couple of years but, in a number of countries, growing pains are starting to emerge. Budget and... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Less to EM reserve accumulation than meets the eye Foreign exchange reserve accumulation by emerging markets has been cited by some as a reason whybond yields in the developed world have fallen in recent months and by others as evidence that the... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Iceland GDP (Q1 14) The small fall in Icelandic GDP in the first quarter of 2014 was somewhat disappointing but we do not think that this marks the start of a renewed deterioration in the economy. 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
