Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) The share of government bonds held by the BoJ has risen sharply since the start of QQE. Contrary to some suggestions, there are no compelling reasons why the central bank’s holdings can’t increase... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will the World Cup kick off a spending spree? With replica shirts, curved televisions and crates of beer all heavily advertised, the World Cup is clearly an important event for many retailers. But while this summer’s football extravaganza is... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economic Outlook Fading headwinds point to stronger GDP growth With credit more freely available and the fiscal drag fading, we anticipate that the economic recovery is finally about to shift into a higher gear. As the weather-related distortion in the first... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Bond market mini-rally unlikely to boost commercial property The recent falls in government bond yields seem to reflect growing expectations that when interest rates start to rise they will not return to the levels seen prior to the financial crisis. Yet... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Small businesses warn about price pressures Recent trends in the small business sector highlight how an easing in credit constraints is oiling the wheels of growth and that a rise in both wage and price inflation may be lurking around the... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Low market volatility is raising long-term risks The low levels of volatility in financial markets reflect a high degree of confidence in the ability of the authorities to prevent crises and respond to shocks, expectations that any policy changes... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Ind. Production (Apr.)/ Italian GDP (Q1) Today’s Italian Q1 GDP breakdown and industrial production data suggested that the economy might return to growth in Q2. But France’s latest industrial production figures show that the recovery there... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lenders and Administrators statistics (Q1 14) The Help to Buy mortgage guarantee scheme has helped to almost double the share of mortgages advanced with a deposit of under 10%. And despite the gradual introduction of the MMR, the share of... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Three scenarios for how Asia’s credit binge will end We have been arguing for some time that Emerging Asia’s credit binge is unsustainable. While we don’t think an Asia-wide financial crisis is likely, the countries that have seen the biggest build-up... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Apr.) April’s industrial production figures added to the growing body of evidence suggesting that the economic recovery might have gathered even more pace in the second quarter. 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Saudi Arabia to shoulder more of OPEC's burden The twice-yearly OPEC meeting in Vienna this week is likely to confirm the official production target of 30m barrels per day. But this is unlikely to prevent the oil price from falling over the next... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish Q1 growth flattered by gold trade The Turkish economy held up well in Q1, in spite of a deepening political crisis and an aggressive hike in interest rates. However, growth was boosted by an improvement in Turkey’s gold trade balance... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (May 14) Although May’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor showed that an escalating price war between supermarkets is depressing the value of food sales, the recovery in retail spending as a whole looks to have... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Consumer & Producer Prices (May.) Today's inflation data confirm our view that broader price pressures are stable and that concerns about deflation, sparked by a short-lived fall in headline inflation in April, were overplayed. 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch “Third arrow” may trigger additional monetary stimulus The Bank of Japan will likely leave policy settings unchanged at the meeting that concludes on Friday (13 th June). We continue to expect more easing in October as it becomes clear that inflation... 10th June 2014 · 1 min read
