Africa Economics Update Concerns over policy credibility emerge in Nigeria Concerns over policy credibility in Nigeria have surfaced over the past month. The Central Bank’s (CBN’s) new governor Godwin Emefiele recently hinted at moves towards looser monetary policy, despite... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (May) The fall in housing starts in May is not a surprise given the size of the gain the month before, although the size of the decline was bigger than we or the consensus expected. Looking ahead, there are... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (May) With core CPI inflation rising to 2.0% in May, from 1.8% in April, the Fed will have to acknowledge in tomorrow’s policy statement that price pressures are building. The chances that it will hike... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Subdued deals data are, perversely, a positive sign The value of commercial property deals completed in the past few months has been a little subdued. But rather than pointing to a market that is losing momentum, this is simply a natural consequence of... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jun.) & Euro-zone Labour Costs (Q1) June’s fall in ZEW economic expectations suggested that investors were unimpressed by recent ECB action and added to signs that the German recovery is nearing a peak. 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (May) May’s drop in UK consumer price inflation demonstrated that strong growth in economic activity is not causing underlying price pressures to build. 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update First rate hikes may be approaching, but policy to stay loose The growing likelihood that the first interest rate hikes will come earlier than previously anticipated will probably have far bigger implications for financial markets than for economic prospects. In... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (May) May’s industrial production data are a timely reminder ahead of this week’s Fed policy meeting that activity is bouncing back after the disappointment of the first quarter. What’s more, the latest... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Iraq crisis tops a long list of geopolitical risks There are good reasons to be relaxed about the global economic fall-out from the latest crisis in Iraq, including the possibility that it might actually lead to an improvement in relations between the... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Santos pips Zuluaga in Colombian elections The re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as the president of Colombia will ensure the continuation of peace talks with the FARC, but is unlikely to signal a shift away from the economy’s reliance on... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia leaves rates on hold as another "gas war" looms The Central Bank of Russia was never likely to alter interest rates at its meeting today – while the economy remains weak, high and rising inflation limits the room for policy support. Meanwhile, news... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka's growth to stay above 7% Sri Lanka’s economy started 2014 on a strong note, and looks set to remain among Asia’s fastest growing economies this year. Unfavourable weather conditions are a potential risk, but the strengthening... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update What is the PBOC up to? Tracking the stance of the People’s Bank has become more difficult as it has brought a large number of policy tools into play. But the consistent goal appears to be to stabilise credit growth. 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth alone won’t fix Egypt’s dire public finances There are growing hopes that the gradual recovery in the Egyptian economy will help to bring the dire public finances on to a more sustainable path. But while we think this will have some impact, in... 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian wholesale inflation spikes, but should ease ahead Today’s data show that wholesale price inflation in India increased sharply in May, denting the optimism stemming from the decrease in consumer price inflation in the same month. 16th June 2014 · 1 min read
