Global Economics Update Rate hikes in sight but policy still very loose Market expectations for policy rates have diverged in the past few weeks. The Bank of England suggested that its first rate hike could take place sooner than previously anticipated. Expectations for... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Russian markets continues Emerging European equities have rebounded over the past month, driven by Russian stocks. However, this has merely recouped losses seen earlier in the year. Looking ahead, we’re relatively downbeat on... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US oil exports just one piece of the puzzle Despite the recent surge in US oil exports, the volumes of crude leaving the US remain minute. It is looking increasingly likely that some export restrictions will be relaxed, but this could take... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May) The annual growth rate of our measure of M3*, which replicates the series discontinued by the Fed, accelerated to an 11-month high of 6.1% in May. This is entirely consistent with the recent rise in... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Silver set to outshine gold again Sentiment in the silver market has remained bearish this year, despite higher gold prices and the strength of global equities. Silver and gold can become disconnected at times, reflecting their very... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Fall in S. Africa’s current account deficit not as good as it looks The narrowing in South Africa’s current account deficit in Q1 is welcome insofar as it has been one of the country’s key vulnerabilities over the past couple of years. But the narrowing was due to a... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bahrain: one of the Gulf’s laggards Bahrain’s economy grew at its fastest pace last year since 2008, but this was driven by a rebound in the oil sector which is unlikely to last. On top of this, political tensions remain high and fiscal... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack FX accumulation by firms allows PBOC to step back The People’s Bank (PBOC) further reduced its foreign exchange purchases to around $6bn in May, the lowest in almost a year. Given last month’s large trade surplus, this might suggest that capital... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC minutes (Jun.) While the minutes of June’s MPC meeting provided some relief that no members have voted to raise rates just yet, they also sounded a hawkish note in reiterating the Governor’s warning that there is a... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Should we expect another "conundrum" in the bond market? The 10-year Treasury yield rose by only a small amount during the Fed’s last major tightening cycle. But this “conundrum” was largely the result of a collapse in the term premium (TP) from a level... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pressure for rate cuts is easing in Thailand The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly kept its policy rate on hold at 2.0% today amid signs that the worst effects of the political crisis on the economy are probably over. Provided the economy... 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update External trade (May) The trade deficit remained broadly unchanged in May, and should narrow slightly further in coming months. 18th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What's the tipping point for oil prices? We would be wary of assertions that there is a single “magic number” for the oil price beyond which the world economy enters a danger zone. Nonetheless, global growth has been sluggish ever since... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market slack will keep inflation low Although inflation has been on the rise, the broader evidence suggests that this pick-up should prove temporary. Economic growth since the start of the year has been disappointing and labour market... 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Will low inflation keep the MPC at bay? Low inflation will not stop interest rates from rising, perhaps quite soon. But it should limit the size and speed of any increase and help the economic recovery to continue largely unconstrained. 17th June 2014 · 1 min read
