Global Markets Update Will EM assets shrug off tighter Fed policy? We are sceptical that tighter US monetary policy will spell disaster for emerging market (EM) assets. Granted, their prices fell sharply after Ben Bernanke first hinted that the Fed was thinking about... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Jun.) The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence rose to a six-year high of 85.2 in June, from 82.2, as the positive effects from an improving labour market and record high equity prices trumped... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recent increase in oil price poses little threat to EM inflation The recent increase in oil prices is unlikely to have much of an impact on EM inflation, which in most places looks set to remain fairly benign. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller Prices & New Home Sales (Apr/May) The sharp slowdown in house price inflation in April is unlikely to be a one-off. House price gains will slow further now that housing supply conditions are loosening. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Interest rates in Hungary to remain low Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary gave a pretty clear signal in the accompanying communiqué that further rate cuts are on the cards and that monetary... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor Underlying trend in world trade still weak The volume of world trade rose in April, according to data released today by the CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economics Policy Analysis. But it remains sluggish in year-on-year terms and has been weak... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai equities on the slide The Dubai equity market has fallen sharply over the past month amid concerns that the Emirate’s real estate sector is becoming another bubble. Elsewhere, spreads on Egypt’s dollar-denominated bonds... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Industrial recovery gathering momentum The weather-related slump in activity in the first quarter persuaded many that the US economic recovery would remain lacklustre. The fundamentals look a lot better now, however, with credit... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentine recession to drag on First quarter GDP data released yesterday showed that the Argentine economy was already in recession even before the latest wrangle with the holdouts from 2005’s debt restructuring. As such, we... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Are higher oil prices a threat to Asia? A sharp rise in oil prices as a result of the crisis in Iraq would have negative effects on Emerging Asia. While the inflationary impact is likely to be manageable, most Asian economies are net... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off Poland’s political scandal The muted reaction in the financial markets to the scandal currently engulfing the Polish government is testament to the economy’s underlying strength as well as the quality of the country’s... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (May 14) The recent run of falling mortgage approvals for house purchase looks to be coming to an end, with the BBA reporting approvals were more or less unchanged in May. But with the FPC expected to act to... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Platinum supply disruption is still a risk After many twists and turns, it now appears that the five-month long strike at South African platinum mines is finally over. At first sight, this should mean that mine supply will recover quickly... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Jun.) June’s Ifo survey added to signs that German GDP growth may already be slowing at what should have been an early stage of the recovery. 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Third arrow unlikely to boost potential growth significantly While the revised “Growth Strategy” appears to contain some promising elements, it is unlikely to lift Japan’s potential growth rate significantly. In particular, the document does not adequately... 24th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Another selection of our non-consensus calls This Update provides some examples of where our views on the economic and market outlook differ significantly from the consensus. It draws on the range of country and regional services produced by our... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
