Global Central Bank Watch First rate hikes getting closer, but pace of tightening to be slow Recent developments suggest that the Bank of England and, perhaps, the US Federal Reserve may make their first rate hikes a little sooner than we had expected a month or two ago. However, global... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey & German CPI estimate (Jun.) June’s EC Business and Consumer Survey added to signs that the euro-zone recovery could be nearing a peak when it has barely begun. 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack World Cup proving a welcome distraction for Brazil The 2014 Football World Cup is proving to be a welcome distraction from yet more downbeat news on Brazil’s economy over the past month. Our GDP Tracker suggests that, after dropping to just 1.9% y/y... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response National Accounts & Balance of Payments (Q1) The first quarter’s national accounts brought some positive news on the pace and balance of the UK’s recovery. And while the current account deficit has remained extremely large, there are reasons to... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (May 14) The Land Registry repeat sales index suggests that house price inflation may be levelling off in response to the sizeable drop in mortgage approvals seen since January. But it is too soon to be... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How vulnerable are US corporate bonds to tighter Fed policy? The onset of Fed tightening has not tended to drive up spreads on investment-grade corporate bonds much in the past. In fact, in the majority of the seven major tightening cycles since the early 1970s... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jun 14.) Despite Mark Carney’s warming that interest rates could rise before the end of the year, consumer confidence has continued to improve, suggesting that the recovery in household spending may gather... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Budapest retail property poised to take off? Temporary factors seem to be behind the recent strength of Hungarian retail sales growth, while the relatively high risk premium for Budapest retail yields seems merited. As such, over the next year... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Banking sector woes to continue to weigh on Vietnam Today’s GDP data show the crisis in Vietnam’s banking sector is continuing to hold back the economy. With the authorities making slow progress in cleaning up the banks, we expect the woes of the... 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (national: May; Tokyo: Jun.), Unemployment & Retail Sales (May) The rebound in retail sales and the renewed decline in the unemployment rate in May confirm that the slump following the consumption tax hike was short-lived. 27th June 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold to gauge effect of new policies The ECB is very unlikely to unveil additional policy support at its policy meeting on 3rd July as it waits to judge the effect of the raft of measures announced in June. President Draghi is likely to... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Small firms in the driving seat Our econometric model suggests that non-farm payroll employment increased by another healthy 200,000 in June and that the unemployment rate fell to 6.2% from 6.3% in May. Meanwhile, the recent surge... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech MPC strikes a dovish note Having kept interest rates on hold earlier today, the Czech MPC maintained its dovish stance at the post meeting press conference. Given the subdued outlook for inflation, monetary conditions are... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update FPC takes (limited) action to cool the housing market The FPC has taken action to rein in a possible future house price boom, but appears entirely relaxed about developments to date. Time will tell, but we think that is rather short-sighted. 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Taiwan central bank in no rush to hike interest rates Taiwan’s central bank (CBC) today left interest rates on hold, but introduced a series of measures to try and cool property prices. Looking ahead, we believe the central bank will continue to tackle... 26th June 2014 · 1 min read
