UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Services (Jun.) June’s CIPS/Markit services survey suggests that the sector’s robust recovery continued in the second quarter, and provides further signs that the wider economic recovery has gathered pace. 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Swedish Riksbank takes steps to tackle deflation Sweden’s central bank today cut its main policy rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bp to 0.25% and pushed back the date at which it first expects to raise rates until the end of 2015 in order to fight... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy slows in Q1, likely to weaken further Q1 GDP data showed that the Saudi economy slowed a touch from Q4 on the back of weakness in the non-oil private sector. The latest PMI surveys suggest that growth in this sector stabilised in Q2... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa’s economy still struggling The latest set of business surveys suggest that, having contracted in the first quarter of this year, South Africa’s economy continued to struggle in Q2. Inflation remains a concern but with activity... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Swedish Riksbank takes steps to tackle deflation Sweden’s central bank today cut its main policy rate by a bigger-than-expected 50bp to 0.25% and pushed back the date at which it first expects to raise rates until the end of 2015 in order to fight... 3rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Was Q2 as good as it gets? In Q2, the euro-zone probably saw a small improvement on Q1’s 0.2% rise in GDP. But falls in the latest activity indicators such as the PMI and the EC’s ESI suggest that the region’s recovery could be... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Is Sweden the Nordic Japan? Fears that Sweden might be about to enter a Japanese-style “lost decade” of deflation and stagnation are not entirely without foundation. But we think that Sweden should be able to avoid such an... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain extremely supportive The National Bank of Poland’s MPC struck a dovish note at this afternoon’s post-meeting pressconference, with Governor Belka flagging the possibility of an interest rate cut in the coming months... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Could improved transparency drive yield compression? Ireland, Portugal, Hungary and Romania all registered strong improvements in JLL’s 2014 Global RealEstate Transparency Index. As such, in these countries the scope for yields to narrow seems to... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Market implications of our revised forecast for Fed policy We now think that the US FOMC will tighten monetary policy sooner, and by more, than we had previously envisaged. Our revised view is that the federal funds rate will end 2016 at 3.0%, rather than 2.5... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What would higher US interest rates mean for commodities? We are forecasting that the Fed will hike US interest rates sooner and raise them further than the markets currently anticipate. A tightening of policy by the world’s most important central bank might... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jun.) Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jun. 14) The further slight decline in mortgage interest rates in June was enough to bump up mortgage applications for remortgaging. But that was offset by a drop in mortgage applications for home purchase... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jun.) The CIPS/Markit construction PMI showed that the pace of growth in commercial property development activity in June was more or less at a seven-year high. The implication is that developers’ are... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 14) The Nationwide reported another strong month of house price growth in June, with prices up 1% m/m. London continues to drive the rise – the pace of annual gains in the capital has now exceeded... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
