Europe Data Response German & Spanish Industrial Production (May) Germany’s May industrial production figures arguably brought the strongest warning yet that the euro-zone’s fledgling economic recovery is in danger of grinding to a halt. 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Jul.) Inflation looks to have stabilised for now but pork prices are likely to drive it higherduring the second half of the year. Producer price inflation is also set to pick up incoming months on the back... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly What to expect from Indonesia’s election? Indonesia’s presidential election on Wednesday could have a crucial bearing on the future of the country’s economy. Financial markets would favour a victory for Joko Widodo, the current mayor of... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Is the euro finally about to drop? Recent policy developments support our expectation that the euro will fall against the US dollar. We forecast a rate of $1.30 at end-2014 and $1.25 at end-2015. But that fall could be too little too... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Energy costs to remain high despite nuclear restart A reshuffle at the nuclear energy watchdog has paved the way for the restart of atomic reactors in Japan. But the economic benefits of this change should not be overplayed. Only around a third of the... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Will the construction recovery continue to build? Given its small weight in overall output, the construction sector is often overlooked. But last week’s survey data provided encouraging evidence that the sector is helping to build a more balanced... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Second quarter ends on a high note The data released in the last week of the second quarter added to other evidence suggesting that the economy is getting back on track after a disastrous first quarter. This provided further tentative... 7th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Better second-quarter GDP growth unlikely to be sustained The lacklustre pace of economic growth in the spring suggests that the economy is still misfiring. As things stand now, we estimate that the economy grew by only 2.0% annualised in the second quarter... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Plenty of scope for further Nikkei outperformance Japanese equities outperformed their peers in June and have continued to do well so far in July. We believe there is still plenty of scope for further gains in the Nikkei 225 even if, as we expect... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack US pulling further ahead of the euro-zone All the evidence suggests that the US economy has bounced back during the past few months, after its weather-induced slump. Business surveys have remained buoyant, credit growth has accelerated and... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Is China’s steel industry set to shrink, at last? The latest batch of emerging market (EM) PMIs suggests that the rebound in EM manufacturing gatheredpace in June. The best performers are still in Asia and Central Europe, as well as Mexico, but there... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Rent data cast doubt on the scale of the housing supply crisis Against the backdrop of a significant housing shortage, we would expect the cost of shelter to be a high and increasing burden on household budgets. But rent and income data show that this is not the... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs point to further rebound in EM manufacturing The latest batch of emerging market (EM) PMIs suggests that the rebound in EM manufacturing gatheredpace in June. The best performers are still in Asia and Central Europe, as well as Mexico, but there... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What more can the Czech National Bank do? The Czech National Bank (CNB) struck a dovish note at last week’s MPC meeting and is clearly concerned about the threat of deflation. For now, we suspect that the Bank is unlikely to take further... 4th July 2014 · 1 min read
