Asia Economics Update India's budget hawkish, but lacking detail on reforms India’s new government took a more hawkish line than expected in its budget today, committing to a further sizeable reduction in the budget deficit that will weigh on growth. Some will be disappointed... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Treasuries vulnerable to a recalibration of rate expectations Ignoring term premiums, the yield of a “risk-free” government bond is a reflection of the short-term rates that are expected until it matures. So if the Fed raises the federal funds rate, there ought... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Saudi Arabia eases as boost from oil sector fades Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy weakened a touch in May as the boost from the oil sector earlier in the year started to fade while the non-oil sector remained sluggish by past... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Easing inflation bolsters case for MPC inaction Although the economic recovery appears to be heading into the second half of this year with plenty of momentum, the continued weakening of inflationary pressures suggests that today’s decision by the... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update More rate hikes in the pipeline for Malaysia Amid rising concerns over the stability of the financial sector, Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today hiked its policy rate for the first time in three years. With the economy in good shape, we see... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update China’s industrial metals imports likely to fall further China’s imports of key commodities were weak in June reflecting the slowdown in the property sector as well as lower import activity related to financing deals. In our view, these factors are likely... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (Jun.) Despite an increase in the headline growth rate, June’s exports were disappointing, perhaps signalling that global demand at the end of the second quarter was not as healthy as had been hoped. China’s... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Trade (May) May’s trade figures provided more disappointing news that manufacturers may be struggling to cope with sterling’s strength. And with exporters still facing a number of headwinds, we expect export... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New president should not expect any favours from Bank Indonesia Bank Indonesia’s (BI) decision to leave interest rates on hold today never really looked in much doubt. Looking ahead, although the central bank may have some scope to cut interest rates over the next... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response French & Italian Industrial Production (May) The sharp falls in Italian and French industrial production in May were another sign that the sector’s recovery is already flagging before it has even really begun. 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Income security measure points to drop in property risk premium The gap between reversionary potential and over-renting on existing leases is rising and this simple measure of income security suggests that risk premiums and property yields have further to fall. 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jun.) The June RICS survey provided further evidence that the housing market is cooling, with the new buyer enquiries, newly agreed sales and price expectations balances all easing. That said, stock levels... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) & Consumer Confidence (Jun.) Machinery orders were far weaker than expected in May. But some pullback was always on the cards in Q2 and the latest figures shouldn't derail hopes that shrinking spare capacity will underpin renewed... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Bank of Korea in no rush to hike interest rates Interest rates in Korea were left on hold today, and with inflation set to stay subdued we expect monetary policy to remain unchanged for the rest of the year. 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Core inflation will continue to rise The recent rise in core inflation is not just “noise” as Janet Yellen suggested and instead a large partof it is linked to a decline in the amount of spare capacity in a number of different sectors... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Canada Watch Bank unlikely to be panicked by higher inflation readings We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although inflation has been firmer than the Bank had originally expected, this is partly because... 9th July 2014 · 1 min read
