China Economics Update Q2 growth edges up on policy fine-tuning Economic activity appears to have picked up in June, resulting in stronger-than-expected Q2 growth. This should assuage hard landing fears and leave policymakers feeling vindicated in their decision... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jun) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation continued to decelerate in June, to 4.4% from 4.6% in May. The past decline in the existing home sales... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update What lies ahead for capital values in H2? The balance of probability suggests that the 1.6%m/m rise in IPD all-property capital values in June will not be matched in the second half of the year. Even so, the annual growth rate is set to... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Lack of progress brings Argentine default closer A lack of progress in negotiations between the Argentine government and the holdouts from the 2001 debt default means that there is an increasing chance that the authorities will be forced back into... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update New Government will keep Slovenian recovery on track Slovenia’s recent election looks set to produce a government that will dilute the country’s muchneededprivatisation programme. Nonetheless, on balance, the new administration will probably... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Sales figures better than they look At first glance, the apparently lacklustre 0.2% m/m increase in June's retail sales, which was well below our own 0.6% estimate, would seem to suggest that consumption ended the second quarter on a... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Is retailers’ pricing power starting to strengthen? The sharp rise in core inflation in June reported by today’s official consumer prices figures contrastswith timelier survey evidence suggesting that discounting on the high street has been... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Maduro must reform to save the Venezuelan economy Nicolas Maduro has so far failed to reverse any of the damage to the Venezuelan economy caused by his predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Rather than continue to tinker with exchange rate mechanisms, we think... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Rising EM trade surplus a result of weaker growth The emerging market-wide trade surplus rose to a record high in US dollar terms in May. But while this would, at first sight, appear to be a positive development, much of the adjustment appears to be... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Jul.) July’s fall in German ZEW investor sentiment added to signs of a slowdown in theeuro-zone’s largest and strongest economy. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jun.) While consumer price inflation rose quite sharply in June, there remain compellingreasons to expect it to ease further over the second half of 2014. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jun.) Whilst retailers appear to have fared well over the second quarter as a whole,June’s BRC Retail Sales Monitor provided further evidence that the ongoing pricewar between supermarkets is depressing the... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update A look ahead to the Nigerian elections With President Goodluck Jonathan soon expected to announce his bid to run for another term in office, attention is quickly turning to Nigeria’s general election, which is now just over six months away... 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update BoJ still likely to extend QQE despite upbeat inflation forecasts It came as no surprise that the BoJ left policy settings unchanged today and presented upbeat inflation forecasts, but we still think more easing will be announced in October. 15th July 2014 · 1 min read
