Asia Economics Update Election uncertainty in Indonesia to weigh on sentiment The uncertainty surrounding Indonesia’s presidential election looks set to continue after Prabowo Subianto, who looks to have lost the election to Joko Widodo, refused to accept today’s results from... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Jun.) The rise in existing home sales reflects the recent decline in mortgage interest rates,stronger job growth and the continued unwinding of the weather effect from earlier inthe year. While the legacy... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update First thoughts on the opening up of Saudi Arabia's stock market The Saudi authorities’ plan to open up the stock market to foreign investors is clearly a step in the right direction. But with equity valuations already stretched, we doubt that it will be the... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary's easing cycle at an end, policy to stay extremely loose The National Bank of Hungary cut its benchmark interest rate by more than both we and the consensus expected earlier today, but followed this up with comments that its two-year long easing cycle is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigerian rates on hold as elections muddy the waters The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) kept interest rates on hold at 12.0% today in what was Godwin Emefiele’s first meeting as governor. Looking ahead, rising inflation suggests that policy tightening is... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Russia still the biggest loser from Western sanctions The direct effects on the European economy of any sanctions-related disruption to trade with Russiawould not be trivial but the impact via energy markets may be less than many fear. Sentiment could... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update First signs that Brazil inflation may be close to peaking Data to the middle of this month suggest that inflation in Brazil is likely to breach the upper bound of its target range for July as a whole but, with the pace of monthly price rises now slowing... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) The softer tone of June’s consumer price figures does little to change our view that core inflation will rise faster than the Fed expects. There is still plenty of evidence that the decline in spare... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Industrial Trends Survey (Jul. & Q3) The CBI Industrial Trends Survey for July and the third quarter provided anencouraging sign that May’s surprisingly weak industrial production figures arelikely to prove short-lived. 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (Jun.) June’s fiscal numbers contained further signs that the coalition is struggling tobring the deficit down in line with the plans. Nonetheless, there are reasons toexpect the trend in public borrowing to... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus How big are the risks from a deteriorating current account? Japan’s current account surplus has fallen sharply in recent years, as the trade balance has moved deeply into the red. The current account balance is more likely to rebound into surplus than slip... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Business investment rebounds The weakness of business investment over the past couple of years has been disconcerting, but arange of indicators point to a much stronger showing in the second quarter while, more generally, rising... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Outlook Prospects for metals prices brightening The combination of stronger growth but less stimulatory monetary policy in the US is more likely tobe a net positive for commodity prices – especially industrial metals – than for those of other... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus A cyclical rise in wage growth is underway A cyclical rise in wage growth appears to be underway in some sectors of the economy and in some US States. This suggests it is only a matter of time before the decline in the national unemployment... 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) The acceleration in the growth rates of both bank loans and our measure of M3 inthe first half of the year suggest that the economic recovery has continued tostrengthen. 21st July 2014 · 1 min read
