UK Housing Market Outlook Housing market activity starts to cool Housing market activity is showing signs of cooling, with mortgage approvals, new buyer enquiries and transactions all easing in recent months. The drop in demand has helped to loosen market... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Lower interest rates won't prevent slowdown Canada's economy will struggle over the next two years due to a housing-induced slowdown that potentially could push the economy close to stagnation before the end of 2016. While export and investment... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada retains neutral bias The monetary policy statement shows that the Bank of Canada isn't concerned about higher inflation, since the recent rise is due to temporary factors, rather than improvements in economic fundamentals... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (May) The 1.6% m/m increase in the volume of manufacturing sales in May, which was partly due to production recommencing at several petroleum refineries, suggests that GDP grew by 0.2% that month. This in... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Low JGB yields not a sign of policy failure The persistently low level of Japanese government bond (JGB) yields is not necessarily a sign that“Abenomics” is failing. Indeed, a premature surge in borrowing costs could put the whole project... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four questions about the BRICS Bank and swap deal After years of discussion, the five BRICS nations yesterday agreed to establish a development bank and a framework of currency swaps, dubbed the “Contingency Reserve Arrangement” (CRA). In this Update... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Survey evidence sheds light on homebuilder labour shortages Homebuilders are encountering shortages of skilled labour in the carpentry and framing trades required early in the homebuilding process. These shortages are leading to higher new build house prices... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jun.) The modest 0.1% m/m gain in manufacturing output in June looks disappointing, but the manufacturing sector actually enjoyed a strong second quarter and the improvement in the survey evidence points to... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: solid but unspectacular outlook for retailers Amid the recent sharp contractions in output from South Africa’s manufacturing and mining sectors, the better-than-expected performance from the retail sector comes as welcome news. But given that... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s rate hike highlights fragile external position The decision by the National Bank of Ukraine to raise its discount rate earlier today serves as a reminder that, in spite of some positive developments over the past couple of months, the country’s... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack UK equities continue to underperform UK equities have continued to underperform relative to overseas indices despite the comparativestrength of the UK’s economic recovery. This seems to have partly reflected concerns that the UK... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: More interest rate cuts likely this year T he Chilean central bank cut interest rates last night and with policymakers clearly more concerned about weak growth than above-target inflation, we expect more reductions in the coming months. We... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (May) May’s euro-zone trade data provided some tentative signs that exports may bebeginning to pick up. But the external sector remains too weak to offset fears that thedomestic recovery is faltering at an... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update World economy able to cope with higher US interest rates We do not think the global recovery will be derailed by tighter US monetary policy during the comingtwo years. This is because the Fed is unlikely to raise rates aggressively, other central banks are... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (May/Jun.) Although employment has continued to grow rapidly, there still appears to beenough slack in the jobs market to prevent pay from picking up. 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Construction Survey (Q2) Commercial property construction activity continued to rise strongly in Q2 and the upswing is clear in every region. This suggests that developers’ confidence about the prospects for occupier demand... 16th July 2014 · 1 min read
