Europe Economics Weekly Don't bank on a German industrial resurgence Data published last week revealed that production fell in all four of the euro-zone’s largest economies in May. But the downturn in Germany has been most disappointing given hopes that this industrial... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Too soon to declare victory on inflation Japanese GDP surely contracted in the second quarter in the wake of April’s consumption tax hike, but the latest survey evidence suggests that a recovery is already underway. In the meantime the Bank... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Singapore manufacturing will continue to struggle Singapore’s manufacturing exports have been a consistent weak point in the economy over recent years. A recovery in global demand should help, but the problems are more than cyclical. In fact, the... 14th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook Getting back to normal Global growth is likely to accelerate a bit during the coming two years while inflation and interest rates should generally remain very low. The US and UK are set for a period of fairly rapid growth... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Risks to the copper price remain on the downside, for now We expect renewed weakness in the copper price later this year as mine supply picks up and Chinese copper imports continue to fall due to waning demand from financing deals. However, we expect prices... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Jun.) Canada's shocking 9,400 decline in employment, following almost no gains over the previous six months, suggests that the economy is really struggling. Clearly, the economy just isn't benefitting from... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Private sector debt remains a concern in some EMs The legacy of the last decade’s sharp rise in private sector debt has kept credit conditions tight and domestic demand weak across a number of EMs over the past few years. And while some of them have... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: interest rate cut unlikely to spur aggressive easing cycle We doubt that last night’s interest rate cut in Peru signals the start of an aggressive easing cycle. Inflation looks set to remain above target while a large current account deficit suggests that... 11th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global prospects for next two years are brighter, but not great Six years after the financial crisis, the world is slowly returning to more “normal” conditions which should support a gradual pick-up in growth. However, the legacy of the crisis will hamper the... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth picks up, but reasons for caution Emerging Market export growth strengthened a little in May and may have accelerated further last month. Even so, the latest country-level trade figures have fallen short of expectations, and suggest... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: strong peso to prevent aggressive interest rate hikes The latest FX intervention programme announced by Colombian policymakers is unlikely to reverse the recent appreciation of the peso against the US$. Accordingly, we expect a strong currency to distort... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Rise in Portuguese bond yields has further to run The recent rise in Portuguese government bond yields related to fears for its banking sector confirms that policymakers have done little to weaken the “doom loop” between banks and sovereigns in the... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How has employment in the main German cities been faring? Over the past six years, office-based employment growth in Munich has outperformed the other major German cities. In contrast, job creation in Frankfurt has been below par. This helps to explain the... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Are weak tax receipts a sign the recovery is flagging? The public finances, particularly tax receipts, have made a disappointing start to this fiscal year. However, recent fiscal data have been distorted by several temporary factors, suggesting that they... 10th July 2014 · 1 min read
