US Fed Watch Drifting towards a change in view on slack With no new economic projections due and nopress conference scheduled, the FOMC policymeeting that ends on Wednesday 30th should be aquiet affair with the only major development beinga further... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jun.) The BBA reported that mortgage approvals for house purchase rose for the second consecutive month in June, following upwards revisions to May’s data. That indicates that the disruption caused by the... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets too complacent on risks to Turkish outlook The recent rally in the Turkish markets appears to have been driven by expectations of continued loose monetary policy in the developed world coupled – dare we say it – with a reasonable amount of... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Further signs that Egypt’s economy is strengthening Having struggled over the past few years, the Egyptian economy has rebounded at the start of 2014 and a number of indicators suggest that growth in Q2 may have been the fastest since early 2012... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (May) May's respectable increase in retail sales volumes combined with the stronger gains in wholesale and manufacturing sales reported last week indicate that the economy regained some lost momentum in... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Focus What can India's policymakers do to kick-start growth? The new government’s emphatic election victory in May has lifted some of the gloom that has hung over India’s economy in recent years. We see a number of ways in which the country’s new leaders can... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CBI Distributive Trades Survey (Jul.) July’s CBI Distributive Trades Survey provided an encouraging sign that retail sales got off to a strong start to the third quarter. What’s more, the outlook remains bright for a continued robust... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Spanish GDP (Q2 est.) The Banco De Espana’s estimate that Spanish GDP rose by 0.5% in Q2 suggests thatSpain may have been one of the strongest euro-zone economies last quarter. But wedoubt that Spain’s recovery can... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response MPC Minutes (Jul.) & BoE Agents’ Scores (Jun.) The minutes of July’s MPC meeting contained further signs that the Committee is edging closer to raising interest rates. While we think that the MPC will be cautious and wait until early 2015 to... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African inflation to remain above target until 2015 South African inflation remained stable in June, but is probably set to rise in the near term, and is unlikely to fall back within the SARB’s target range until early 2015. This should be enough to... 23rd July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Labour market conditions worsening The fact that Canada's unemployment rate has only nudged higher in the past few months is astonishing, given the recent weakness in net employment gains. The only reason why the unemployment rate hasn... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Outlook How will the markets respond to Fed tightening? The received wisdom is that Fed tightening is bad news for many assets. But in the last three cycles, this was not always the case. Next time around, our view is that the US stock market will shrug... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets may be overplaying Russia’s resilience The muted reaction in Russian markets to the growing likelihood of additional economic and financialsanctions by the EU probably reflects two things. The first is the widespread assumption that Europe... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina debt crisis: no stay brings default closer Judge Griesa’s refusal today to grant the Argentine government a stay in the ongoing debt dispute meansthat it is increasingly likely that the authorities will default on 30th July. Default is another... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What explains the weakness of Belgian and Italian investment? Belgium’s weak economic fundamentals mean it sits near the bottom of the rankings in terms of core euro-zone commercial property investment destinations. While Italy suffers from an even weaker... 22nd July 2014 · 1 min read
