US Data Response Surge in confidence to near 7-year high hard to justify The surge in the Conference Board's consumer confidence measure to a six-and-a-half year high of 90.4 in July, from 86.4 in June, looks a bit suspicious, even if we allow for the recent drop back in... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Are EM credit spreads about to surge? The yields of dollar-denominated emerging market government bonds have been broadly flat over the past month after having declined by over one percentage point between the end of January and the end... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Widening trade deficit due to strong domestic demand Although the trade deficit has widened in recent months, the increase is largely due to the strength of imports rather than the weakness of exports. Our calculations suggest that exports increased at... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul) The latest money and credit figures show that bank lending is finally staging a gradual recovery. Butwith broad money growth still fairly subdued and bank lending recovering from a low level, the... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (Jul.) June’s household borrowing figures supported the view that the recent slowdown inhousing market activity is largely due to temporary disruptions caused by theintroduction of the Mortgage Market Review... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response RICS Commercial Property Market Survey (Q2) Today’s RICS survey confirms a continued occupier market recovery in all sectors and regions, pointing to faster rental value gains in the coming quarters. 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Economy was gaining momentum at end of Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that there was a strong rebound in economic growth at the end of Q2. The property sector remains a drag, but this was more than offset by relatively broad-based... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jun.) Net property lending was negative for the 31 st consecutive month in June. But while these figures show that the rundown of debt in the sector isn’t over yet, gross new lending has already begun to... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM demographic challenge not the disaster that many expect The contribution that favourable demographics have made to emerging market growth over the past couple of decades is often overplayed. In reality, the growth of working age populations has played only... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jun.) The disruption caused by the MMR appears to be passing, with the Bank of England reporting a healthy rise in mortgage approvals in June. A strong economic recovery will ensure that lending grows... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Jul.) While the renewed improvement in small business confidence in July lifted the index well above its long-term average, the survey still points to sluggish industrial output. 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Unemployment, Retail Sales & Household Spending (Jun.) Today's data showed the second consecutive rise in retail sales following April's plunge and a tightening labour market suggests that the recovery in consumer spending should continue in coming months... 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Data to highlight contrasting fortunes of the US and euro-zone 29th July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Markets take Argentina’s debt dispute in their stride The Argentine government seems increasingly likely to default on sovereign debt repayments due at the end of this month but the reaction in both local markets and markets in the region more generally... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Fracking to play a larger role in UK energy production The UK government’s announcement that it will open a new round of bidding for fracking licencesunderlines its enthusiasm for developing its shale resources. However, it will be many years if... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Sanctions on Russia pose limited threat to Germany The likelihood that the EU will impose stiffer sanctions on Russia has raised concerns about the effecton German exports and the wider economy. But while certain companies rely strongly on trade... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
