US Housing Market Chart Pack Sales and starts still soft The housing market has yet to shake off the weakness seen in the early stages of the year. Despite increasingly solid economic data and a drop in mortgage interest rates, mortgage applications and new... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What next for commodity price correlations? The perceived wisdom is that the very high correlation between commodity and equity pricemovements during 2009-12 was an aberration caused by the global financial crisis and itsramifications. We do... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Ghana faces up to economic woes by turning to the IMF Ghana’s authorities bowed to the inevitable on Sunday by formally requesting help from the IMF in dealing with the country’s enormous twin budget and current account deficits. The most likely form of... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response CIPS/Markit Construction PMI (Jul.) The CIPS/Markit commercial property construction PMI eased a bit in July, but was still at a high level. In the long run, increased development activity will obviously dampen rents. But in the shorter... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch October meeting might disappoint markets The upcoming BoJ meeting is unlikely to result in any changes in policy. However, policymakers will have to outline their strategy for 2015 before too long – most likely at the late-October meeting... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Developed market equities to do well despite rise in volatility 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Weaker pound not a panacea for rebalancing In its latest assessment of the UK economy, the IMF last week concluded that sterling was“moderately” overvalued and that its strength may be holding back the economy’s rebalancing.But we doubt that a... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Credit conditions easing, but still very tight The ECB’s latest Bank Lending Survey (BLS) added to the evidence that improving conditions in the euro-zone’s financial sector are finally feeding into the real economy. But it will be a while before... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Consumer spending in Emerging Asia set for recovery Emerging Asia’s consumers have been struggling in recent months. Tight labour markets and improving growth prospects point to some pick-up going forward, but high levels of household debt in a number... 4th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The rise in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year high in July suggests that the third quarter began on a high note. The index is consistent with the 4.0% annualised gain in GDP in the second... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Consumption growth set to accelerate Consumption growth has been remarkably stable at around 2% since the recovery began in mid-2009. Nevertheless, we anticipate that the pick-up in income growth and past gains in householdwealth will... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Jul.) It is a sign of how far the US economy has come in recent months that the 209,000increase in non-farm payroll employment in July will probably be viewed as adisappointment in the markets. The... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More bad news for Brazilian industry Brazilian industrial production contracted sharply in June and July’s weak manufacturing PMI suggests that there could be more bad news in the pipeline. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican industry... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African manufacturing in dire straits South Africa’s manufacturing PMI for July makes for grim reading. The index is now consistent with an outright contraction in the sector of around 5-6% y/y, and suggests that even our below-consensus... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jul.) While the key activity balances of the CIPS manufacturing survey softened in July,they still point to strong growth in the third quarter and so suggest that the sector isstill thriving is spite of... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Supply factors pull down commodity prices An increase in oil supply from Libya outweighed an increase in geopoliticaltensions elsewhere causing oil prices to fall in July, whilst continued goodweather in the US led to a drop in the prices of... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
