Latin America Economics Update Colombia: interest rates do not have much further to rise Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4.25% last night but we do not think that the current tightening cycle has much further to run. Inflation is unlikely to pose a problem... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Capital values boosted by yield compression Economic indicators paint a mixed picture of the euro-zone recovery. On the one hand, the situation in the peripheral economies is improving. But at the same time, growth in the core economies appears... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs point to a soft start to Q3 July’s manufacturing PMIs from Emerging Europe were, in aggregate, a little better than June’s figures. But they were still weaker than their average over the first half of the year. What’s more, much... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
BoE Watch MPC’s judgement on wages key to rate outlook While a vote to raise interest rates does not seemimminent, the Inflation Report following the MPC’s meeting will give the clearestsignal yet as to whether a hike is likely before theend of 2014. In... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (Jul.) Although progress remains slow in many countries, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided moreevidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update July PMIs point to strengthening recovery The July PMIs for Emerging Asia show that the region's manufacturing sectors generally fared well over the past month. Encouragingly, rising new orders suggests the recovery has further to run. 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) The latest PMI surveys confirm that the recovery in manufacturing activity has continued to accelerate going into Q3. That said, policymakers are seemingly comfortable with current growth rates and... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Housing market hit hard by sales tax hike Housing starts and sales have plunged as a result of the sales tax hike, and residential investment will likely contract in both Q2 and Q3. While the experience from the last consumption tax hike is... 1st August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Major shockwaves from Argentine default unlikely We do not expect Argentina’s default to trigger a prolonged ripple of contagion in the rest of Latin America. There may be some turbulence in the region’s financial markets, but we suspect that the... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Making sense of Hungary’s new policy rate The National Bank of Hungary is due to introduce a new benchmark monetary policy instrument tomorrow. While this is unlikely to have any impact on domestic monetary conditions, policymakers have... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor China rebound leaves other BRICs lagging behind Our GDP Tracker suggests that EM growth has accelerated a touch in recent months. Much of the pick-up has been due to a turnaround in Asia, including China. But while the outlook for China seems to... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
ECB Watch ECB on hold despite deflation risk With the measures announced in June seeming tohave some positive effects on financial marketconditions, the ECB is unlikely to announceadditional policy support this month. But furthersigns of... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (May) May's consensus-matching 0.4% m/m increase in GDP suggests that second-quarter GDP growth will turn out to be close to 2.5% annualised, following the weather-related slowdown to 1.2% in the first... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How and where the latest sanctions will hit the Russian economy The latest package of sanctions adopted by the EU and the US against Russia will affect the economy in different ways. In the short-term, restrictions on access to western capital markets for selected... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update What is happening to mortgage lending? The value of banks’ outstanding residential mortgage lending is rising but the number of new loans remains static. This divergence is explained by a sharp rise in the value of the typical mortgage... 31st July 2014 · 1 min read
