Europe Commercial Property Update What next for Dutch office rents? We envisage only a modest improvement in office occupier demand in the Netherlands over the next year or two as economic growth and job creation disappoint. Yet office rents are likely to drift higher... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Has the ‘staycation’ boost run its course? The pound’s depreciation and the UK’s recession which caused many Brits to forgo overseas tripssupported the UK tourism industry during the downturn. But now, sterling’s rise and the strongerrecovery... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Low inflation a threat to fiscal policy in the euro-zone and Japan Continued very low inflation is likely to have anegative impact on debt ratios in both Japan andthe euro-zone during the coming years. Insouthern euro-zone countries real interest rateswill probably... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Markets shrug off latest standoff with Russia The renewed violence in eastern Ukraine, the imposition of fresh sanctions by the US and the threat of further moves by the EU have weighed on Russian equities. But the recent falls haven’t been as... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Land Registry Repeat Sales Index (Jun.) The Land Registry reported that house prices were flat in June, which led to the first drop in the annual rate in a year. That is consistent with other measures indicating a slowdown in the housing... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Focus What impact could El Niño have on agricultural commodities? It is looking increasingly likely that an El Niño weather phenomenon will develop in the Pacific Ocean later this year. This has raised fears that crop production across the Americas, South-East Asia... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Markets continue to shrug off the gradual shift in Fed policy 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Inflation likely to peak before end of this year The recent pick-up in inflation has led some people to question the Bank of Canada's neutral stance on interest rates, but we think these concerns are misplaced. The recent increase in headline... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Risks surrounding Q2 GDP larger than normal We expect this week’s release of the preliminary estimate of GDP in the second quarter to reveal thatgrowth rebounded at an annualised rate of 3.2% after the 2.9% contraction in the first quarter... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone consumers still not ready to spend freely Despite a slight fall in July, euro-zone consumer confidence remains at a high level. But this hasyet to be reflected in a significant rise in spending growth. This might be because consumers’optimism... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is a fiscal crisis quietly brewing? On the face of it, last week’s fiscal figures suggested that the public finances are still not benefitingfrom the recovery’s strength. Indeed, if the trend in the first three months of this fiscal... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Fuel subsidy reform an early test for Indonesia’s Jokowi Financial markets have welcomed the election of Joko Widodo as Indonesia’s president, but there is still great uncertainty over his policy priorities and his ability to push through his own agenda. Mr... 28th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Could the euro-zone mimic the UK’s recovery? On the face of it, the UK’s impressive economic recovery offers significant hope to the euro-zone. Butwe think that still high levels of debt and a relatively timid monetary policy response will... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jun.) June’s durable goods orders data suggest that the rebound in business investment inthe second quarter was a bit smaller than we had been expecting. Nonetheless,annualised GDP growth in the second... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jun.) Although June’s euro-zone monetary data showed some further signs of improvement, lending is still falling and the data point to a significant risk of deflation in the region. 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Surprise Russia rate hike a response to geopolitics not inflation Russia’s central bank justified its surprise decision to hike interest rates this morning on stubbornly high inflation, but it’s pretty clear that this is a pre-emptive move to limit capital outflows... 25th July 2014 · 1 min read
