Risks surrounding Q2 GDP larger than normal

We expect this week’s release of the preliminary estimate of GDP in the second quarter to reveal thatgrowth rebounded at an annualised rate of 3.2% after the 2.9% contraction in the first quarter. Therisks around that forecast, however, are larger than normal. One possibility is that growth in the firstquarter is revised up, which could mean that second-quarter growth comes in lower than expected.

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