Europe Economics Update New Belgian coalition is likely to disappoint News that the three major Flemish parties have formed a regional government raises hopes that Belgium’s federal political deadlock will be resolved soon. But the proposed national coalition looks set... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai leads equity market rebound Equity markets across the MENA region have rebounded following a poor performance in June. The Dubai stock market has recouped a large chunk of its previous losses. And equities in Saudi Arabia have... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in agricultural prices to help keep EM inflation muted Inflation across the EM world remains relatively low in aggregate terms, even if it is still worryingly high in a handful of countries. Looking ahead, with global food prices falling, and underlying... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean growth to accelerate in H2 on stimulus spending Despite the sharp Q2 slowdown in Korea, today’s government stimulus package should lead to anacceleration in growth in the second half of the year, putting the economy on schedule to meet ourforecast... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Demand for EM equities grows despite Ukraine crisis The crisis in Ukraine is continuing to have very little effect on the financial markets in most other emerging countries, with the notable exception of Russia. In the past month or so, the MSCI... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMIs to provide only limited support to commodity prices Despite the rise in the PMIs in both China and the euro-zone in July, the near-termoutlooks for industrial commodity and oil prices remain weak. Indeed, there arelingering concerns that the euro-zone... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) The meagre growth in the official measure of retail sales volumes in June probablyunderstates the underlying strength of the consumer recovery. 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jul.) The jump in the flash composite PMI in July suggested that euro-zone activity picked up at the start of Q3 but it is unlikely to alleviate concerns that the recovery in the euro-zone is already... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Should we be worried by the fall in shipping costs? Freight costs, as measured by the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), have fallen 68% since the beginning of 2014,largely reflecting the oversupply of vessels. However, in our view, the recent falls in the BDI... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Rental growth in Warsaw and Krakow set to boost retail capital values Poland’s strengthening labour market and rising consumer confidence bode well for retail occupier demand in Krakow and Warsaw. And, with little new supply in the pipeline, the prospects for rental... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) Today's PMI reading suggests that conditions in the manufacturing sector have continued to improve going into Q3 on the back of targeted support measures and warming external demand. That said... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update New Zealand rates to go on pause after latest hike The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its policy rate by 25bp for the fourth straight meeting today, but signalled that it may now stay on hold for a while. We still expect one more rate hike... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Korean slowdown unlikely to prompt a rate cut GDP growth in Korea eased in the second quarter of the year, mainly due to a fall in consumer spending and investment. Although recent economic weakness has reignited talk of a possible rate cut, we... 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (July) The decline in the manufacturing PMI in July suggests that the economy is recovering only slowly from the weakness caused by the consumption tax hike. 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External trade (Jun.) While the trade deficit widened last month, it remains much smaller than before the sales tax hike. This suggests that net trade finally ceased to be a drag on GDP growth last quarter. 24th July 2014 · 1 min read
