Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jun.) The monthly external trade balance unexpectedly improved to a surplus of $1.9bn in June, which is the best showing in more than two years. To the extent that the improvement reflects stronger growth... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update After Zambia and Ghana, will others turn to the IMF? Recent moves by both Zambia and Ghana to request IMF help have focused attention on vulnerabilities in other economies in the region that run large current account deficits. But strong inflows of... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Slump in US natural gas prices only temporary Mild summer weather in the US combined with an increase in production has pulled down US naturalgas prices over the last few months. However, we think that in the long term, higher demand from... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack CEE investment grows strongly in Q2 Economic indicators in the non-euro-zone Western European economies were generally positive in Q2, but there are signs that growth slowed across the board in Emerging Europe. That wasn’t enough to put... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Three scenarios for Russia’s economy The deepening political crisis between Russia and the US/Europe means that the uncertainties attached to economic forecasts are even greater than usual. In these circumstances it makes more sense to... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Chart Pack Recovery gained little traction in Q2 According to recent hard data, next week’s Q2 GDP release may show that the euro-zone’srecovery gained no momentum after Q1’s disappointing 0.2% quarterly rise in GDP. In fact,the performance of... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Focus Brazil Election Watch: A blueprint for reform There are a number of ways in which the winning candidate in October’s presidential elections could help to turn around Brazil’s struggling economy. But efforts will need to be targeted on structural... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Chart Pack Diverging inflation rates The rebound in the US economy in Q2 from its weather-induced downturnshould mean that global growth in the second quarter was much stronger thanin Q1. What’s more, business surveys suggest that... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jun.) The decline in the monthly trade deficit to a five-month low of $41.5bn in June, from$44.7bn, means that second-quarter GDP growth will be revised even higher from theinitial estimate of 4.0%... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Jul.) The downward trend in mortgage rates seen over the first half of the year has ended, with rates unchanged in July. That helps explain why mortgage applications for refinancing fell during the month. A... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Inflation Monitor (Aug.) Headline inflation looks set to remain roughly stable in the near term. Although it is likely to rise again over the next few quarters on the back of rising pork prices and an increase in utility... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Italian GDP (Q2, Prov.) The second consecutive fall in GDP underlines that Italy’s crisis is not over yet. Withpublic debt still rising, market pressures on the country may yet start to build. 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s industrial production figures confirmed that the onus was even more on theservices sector to keep the recovery chugging along in the second quarter.However, the industrial recovery should build... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand to keep rates on hold until 2015 The Bank of Thailand (BoT) unsurprisingly held its policy rate at 2.0% at its meeting today amid an improving growth outlook. But as the economy may take some time to achieve a sustained recovery, we... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Jul.) The volatility in the Halifax measure of house prices continues, with a rise of 1.4% in July more than reversing last month’s drop. The underlying rate of growth has now accelerated, but given other... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Sector insight: cars - Will sales keep growing at full throttle? Whilst a pick-up in earnings, the older average age of existing cars and attractive financing deals should persuade more households visit their local dealership over the next few years, we doubt that... 6th August 2014 · 1 min read
