Latin America Economics Update A fork in the road Data on vehicle production released over the past month suggest contrasting fortunes for Latin America’s two largest economies. While Mexico seems to be turning a corner and growth over the second... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update The outlook for non-prime regional office returns is strong Non-prime property yields fell by more than prime in every sector in Q2, but the biggest movers were regional office markets. Even after the recent sharp falls, however, yields for lower quality Rest... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) The collapse in economic activity last quarter was largely a result of the higher sales tax, and we still believe that the recovery will resume in the second half of the year. 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German ZEW Survey (Aug.) August’s drop in the ZEW Economic Sentiment Indicator was another worrying signfor the German economy, particularly as perceptions of current conditions are nowweakening along with expectations. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus Dwindling slack will soon lead to surge in wage growth We believe that the slack in the labour market is dwindling and we expect a resulting accelerationin wage growth to be one of the big stories over the next 12 months. Unless productivity growth breaks... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Indian data leaves RBI in a bind Today’s industrial production and inflation data for India were a disappointment. The slowdown in industrial production growth cast doubt on the recent recovery of the sector, while the sharp rise in... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Have grain and soybean prices hit a floor? There is still scope for some small falls in nominal grain prices and larger ones in soybean prices in themedium term, especially if oil prices continue to fall back. Over the longer term we also... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Credit flowing more freely to small businesses Recent trends in the small business sector suggest that the labour market has continued to strengthenand that the loosening in credit conditions will allow businesses to boost investment. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Are rapid gains in Oslo retail rents underpinned by fundamentals? Solid Norwegian retail sales growth over the past few years seems to explain the rise in Oslo retail rental values. Granted, other factors such as changing retail trends are also at play. Nevertheless... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt's banks unlikely to support the economic recovery There are growing hopes that the recent return to political stability in Egypt will trigger a revival in bank lending to the private sector. But we think this optimism may be overdone. A heavy burden... 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response BRC Retail Sales Monitor (Jul.) July’s weak BRC Retail Sales Monitor may raise concern that the consumer recoveryis losing steam. However, the underlying picture is probably not as weak as it looks. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Jul.) Bank lending continues to expand at a robust pace, but weaker loan demand should eventually lead to a slowdown. 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Will a weaker euro ever provide a boost to euro-zone equities? 12th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Outlook brightening The recent fall in equity prices and stagnation in house prices has not taken much of the gloss off the strengthening in the other economic news. As such, the economic outlook is even brighter now... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: a better Q2, but Q3 could bring further weakness After a torrid Q1, the Russian economy performed a little better in Q2. Although growth slowed a touch in annual terms, output appears to have grown over the quarter. Nonetheless, the respite is... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update A new policy rule for the post-crisis era Most monetary policy rules, many of which suggest that interest rates should already have risen, arelargely useless in the post-crisis world. If we make adjustments to allow for a lower neutral rate... 11th August 2014 · 1 min read
