Africa Economic Outlook Cracks emerge in the “Africa Rising” story The long-run growth outlook for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) remains good, but recent developments have caused cracks to emerge in the “Africa Rising” story. Budget and current account positions have... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Second estimate of GDP (Q2) The second estimate of GDP confirmed that the economic recovery remainedstrong, but became a little less balanced in the second quarter. 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: more interest rate cuts to come Policymakers in Chile cut interest rates by 25bp to 3.50% last night and gave a clear indication that there is more monetary easing to come. If economic growth does not pick up as we expect ,the risks... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Brighter outlook for EM than DM government bonds The sharp decline in the yields of local currency government bonds in developed countries has boosted the relative appeal of those in emerging countries. Admittedly, we expect yields in most developed... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong Malaysian economy can withstand more rate hikes Malaysia's economy accelerated for the fifth straight quarter in Q2, supported by strong export growth. Although Malaysia’s headline growth rate is likely to drop off in the second half of the year as... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What to make of the growing gap between DM & EM bond yields 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Rise in auto loans not another bubble The NY Fed's latest data on household debt help to alleviate concerns that a bubble in sub-prime auto loans is forming. Relative to households incomes, auto loan debt is still at comparatively low... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor Is sterling really overvalued? When comparing sterling’s real effective exchange rate to its ten-year average,the currency appears to be around 12% overvalued – which is the largest degreeof misalignment among the developed market... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Prime mortgage credit loosening despite new lending rules Mortgage credit conditions are loosening once again and the demand for mortgages is strengthening. Moreover, this is despite the introduction of the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau’s ability-to... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Focus Scotland’s independence and the UK’s financial markets If the Scottish people voted for independence next month, it would create a lot of uncertainty andprobably weaken investors’ appetite for Gilts, UK equities and sterling. Admittedly, the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily How would the markets react if Scotland voted to go it alone? 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update ISM indices in rate-hiking territory The ISM activity indices have risen to levels that previously prompted the Fed to raise interest ratesand the yield curve to steepen. This is unlikely to force the Fed into action immediately – in... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Stimulus may backfire as bank deal falls through Negative comments from holdout creditors suggest that a solution to the Argentine debt dispute involving private banks has fallen through. That, along with interest rate cuts and monetisation of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Are global growth fears overdone? The world economy does not appear to be heading for a major slowdown, despite the weak Q2 GDP data from the euro-zone and Japan and some softer monthly indicators from China. The most reliable survey... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer spending may be stabilising The latest data suggest that Saudi consumer spending remains weak by past standards, but it does at least look like the recent slowdown may now have bottomed out. 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests continued weakness in Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that, following the contraction in Q1, the South African economy avoided entering recession in Q2, but only by the skin of its teeth. The bigger picture is that growth remains... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
