UK Economic Outlook Recovery to maintain pace despite headwinds While the recovery in consumer spending is no longer gaining pace, we expect it to remain brisk over the next couple of years. Real earnings should pick up as inflation eases and further falls in... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB has too much faith in long-term inflation expectations The key remaining barrier to bolder ECB policy support seems to be the Governing Council’s viewthat long-term inflation expectations are “well-anchored”. We have doubts over the usefulness ofsuch... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil Election Watch: First thoughts on Silva’s entry The death last week of Socialist Party presidential candidate Eduardo Campos and the likelihood that he will be replaced at the top of the party’s ticket by Marina Silva, a former Environment Minister... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Jun.) June’s euro-zone trade data provided yet further evidence that the external sectorremains too weak to make up for the region’s feeble domestic recovery. 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economic recovery will take time Thailand's economic performance improved in the second quarter, following the military coup in late May that has helped calm political unrest and boosted confidence in the economy. Growth is set to... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Weak Q2 GDP underlines case for more easing Last quarter's GDP figures were weaker than we had expected, and we've adjusted our growth forecast for 2014 from 1.5% to 0.9%. What's more, growth in the current fiscal year may be close to zero... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian inflation likely to stay subdued Inflation remains subdued across most of Asia, and we see little danger of it accelerating significantly any time soon. As such, we only expect rate hikes in a few economies before the end of 2014 . 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stalled recovery intensifies pressure on the ECB The euro-zone’s economic recovery came to a complete halt in the second quarter at what shouldhave been a very early stage. There were some temporary factors at play which suggest thatgrowth should... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Plenty to talk about at Jackson Hole Federal Reserve officials will be heading to their annual policy get together at Jackson Hole later this week. We expect little in the way of direct insights into the monetary policy outlook... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Deciphering the pay puzzle Last week’s Inflation Report saw the MPC place more emphasis on earnings at a time whenindicators are giving radically different signals regarding its current – let alone likely future –strength... 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update What’s behind the decline in oil prices? Reports that Ukrainian forces have attacked a military convoy from Russia have pushed up oil prices today, but the bigger picture is that they remain much lower than only a few weeks ago. We suspect... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The decline in the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index to an eight-month low of 79.2 in August, from 81.8, principally reflects the drop back in stock markets over the past few weeks... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production & Producer Prices (Jul.) The surge in industrial production in July offsets the weaker news on retail salesreleased earlier this week, suggesting that the recovery remains intact. 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil set to post sharp drop in Q2 GDP The release of June’s activity data allows us to firm up our estimate of Q2 GDP in Brazil – and the news isn’t good. We think that GDP may have contracted by 0.5% q/q in the second quarter. And with... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Hong Kong's economy should rebound from Q2 drop Hong Kong's economy contracted in the second quarter, due to weak domestic demand and services exports, but an expected pick-up in the global economy should underpin a rebound over the coming quarters... 15th August 2014 · 1 min read
