Europe Economics Update Stronger data to delay Norges Bank rate cut Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we hadpreviously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%,by the... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update US shale boom to continue to lift oil production Improvements in drilling technology and processes have continued to boost US shale oil output, evenwhen the number of rigs actually drilling has remained flat. These improvements should reduce... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Chart Pack Constraints on banks, not demand, behind loan slump A record RMB2.0trn fall in bank deposits in July, which put pressure on banks’ loan-to-deposit ratios (LDRs), appears to have been the main factor behind last month’s weakness in lending. LDRs are a... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Jul.) The sharp rise in housing starts in July is an encouraging sign that the recovery in construction activity is getting back on track. Booming homebuilder confidence points to further gains to come. 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: still struggling at the start of Q3 July’s activity data will do little to ease concerns about the outlook for Russia’s economy. Industrial production accelerated a little and agricultural production strengthened on the back of this... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Consumer Prices (Jul.) The recent slowdown in the pace at which core consumer prices are rising eases some of the pressure on the Fed to start considering rate hikes, although only temporarily. 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will office rental value growth in Barcelona outpace Madrid? To date, the stronger recovery in office-based employment in Barcelona has yet to be reflected in a rise in rental values. But over the next couple of years, we suspect that rents in Barcelona will... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Q2's inventory surge not necessarily a sign of trouble While large inventory build-ups usually spell trouble for future output, last quarter’s surge was largely the result of the one-off hit to demand from the sales tax hike. Overall, we still expect the... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Consumer Prices & Producer Prices (Jul.) July’s fall in CPI inflation has put it back on a downward trend which we still thinkcould see it ease to as low as 1% by the end of the year. The UK economy remainson track, then, to enjoy a... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Little to support copper prices in rest of 2014 Copper prices have slipped in the last week and we expect a more concerted move down as supply bottlenecks ease at a time of subdued demand growth. However, prices should stabilise and start to move... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Gulf’s stock market rally loses steam Equity markets in the Gulf have been among the best performers in the world over the previous year, but they’ve flat-lined during the past month. The one exception is Saudi Arabia, where the stock... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update How might votes for rate hikes in the UK affect markets? If tomorrow’s minutes of the UK Monetary Policy Committee’s latest meeting reveal that some members voted to raise interest rates earlier this month, short-term Gilt yields may rise and sterling... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Has forward guidance been a success? One year on, the report card for the MPC’s forward guidance is decidedly mixed. While it may have boosted confidence, it seems to have fallen short of meeting the MPC’s aims of clarifying its... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Stronger data to delay Norges Bank rate cut Recent Norwegian economic data suggest that a September rate cut is less likely than we had previously thought. But we still think the Norges Bank will cut its key policy rate, currently at 1.5%, by... 19th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile stuck in the slow lane The further slowdown in Chilean GDP growth in Q2 adds to the evidence that the economy is set for a prolonged period of weaker growth. We continue to expect GDP growth of just 2.8% this year. 18th August 2014 · 1 min read
