Global Markets Update Further ECB easing could see Bund yields rebound The weakness of the euro-zone economy and the persistent threat of deflation should keep German government bond (Bund) yields relatively low. However, any scaling back of fiscal austerity and the... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (Aug.) The rise in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence in August to itshighest level since before the recession looks a bit odd when other measures ofconfidence have weakened. Nonetheless... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update French political turmoil adds to near-term economic risks The latest anti-austerity backlash from within the French Government, together with supportive comments from the ECB, offer hope that the euro-zone’s fiscal straightjacket could be loosened in future... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Jun.) The monthly Case-Shiller 20-City measure of house prices posted its second consecutive fall in June. Year-on-year house price inflation has slowed considerably this year, in line with our long... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Jul.) July’s spectacular durable goods orders provide a misleadingly strong signal on thestrength of the economy, although the outlook for business investment is improving. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South African economy stagnates in first half of 2014 Today’s GDP data show that, following the contraction in Q1, the South African economy narrowly avoided entering recession in Q2. But the bigger picture is that the economy remains very weak. Output... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update ECB finally facing facts President Draghi’s comments at Jackson Hole supported our long-held view that the ECB will take theplunge into full-blown quantitative easing, probably around the turn of the year. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response BBA Mortgage Lending (Jul.) The BBA reported that banks approved fewer mortgages for house purchase in July compared to the previous month. But with the employment rate close to a record high and house price expectations... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Morocco: slump in agriculture doesn’t dampen positive outlook A slump in agricultural output has weighed heavily on Morocco’s economy since the start of this year. However, exports are now picking up on the back of stronger external demand while the boom in the... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Small Business Confidence (Aug.) While small business confidence weakened in August, firms expect conditions to improve strongly next month. 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Why Turkish inflation won’t fall back as far as the CBRT expects Turkish policymakers have argued that the recent rise in inflation is a temporary phenomenon and this, in turn, has fuelled speculation in the markets that interest rates will be cut further. However... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Jul.) The decline in new home sales in July, albeit from an upwardly revised level in June, is further evidence that the new homes sector is failing to share in the wider economic recovery. Nevertheless... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Second-quarter economic rebound won't be sustained Canada's economic rebound in the second quarter mainly reflects a bounce-back after bad winter weather dampened economic activity in the first quarter of this year and certain one-off factors that... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Why are Japan’s exports (still) not picking up? The continued sluggishness of exports in the face of significant yen depreciation reflects the fact that firms have been reluctant to lower prices, as well as weakness in global demand. But there are... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Is the global recovery stalling? Despite the recent run of bad news, particularly from Europe, we do not believe that the world economy is about to slow sharply. There is still ample spare capacity for growth and plenty of room for... 25th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response CPI (Jul.) & Retail Sales (Jun.) The unexpected decline in core inflation in July, to 1.7% from 1.8% in June, probably marks a turning point for the second half of this year. With labour market conditions likely to become even more... 22nd August 2014 · 1 min read
