Bank of Canada Watch Export rebound won't prompt a shift in neutral stance We expect the Bank of Canada to retain its neutral interest rate bias in next week's policy statement. Although exports have rebounded surprisingly well, the Bank's Governor doesn't seem convinced... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Major fiscal improvement has already occurred The CBO’s latest budget projections highlight the extent of the improvement in America’s fiscalposition in recent years. At the same time, the CBO appears to agree with the Fed’s assessment thatthere... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Latin America inflation woes deepen Although inflation at the aggregate EM level remains fairly benign, there are big differences between the main EM regions. Inflation is fairly low in most of Emerging Asia, but is high and rising in... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Will the gold price continue to stagnate? The current strength of equity prices has left gold in the shade and we are lowering our price forecastsfor the precious metal accordingly. But we still expect the positives to outweigh the negatives... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish policymakers too sanguine on external vulnerabilities The decision by Turkey’s central bank to cut its overnight lending rate, which forms the upper bound of the corridor in which market rates are allowed to fluctuate, suggests that it is becoming less... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack A stronger and more widespread recovery Both businesses and households have started to enjoy the fruits of an economicrecovery that appears to be becoming stronger and more widespread. A weightedaverage of the two ISM business activity... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Central Bank Watch What did we learn from Jackson Hole? Last week’s gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole served to underline the gulf between labour market conditions in the major advanced economies. We suspect that these differences will lead to a... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Export recovery continues to stutter The region's exporters are still struggling. Although exports from Emerging Asia as a whole expanded at their fastest pace all year in June, this was mostly due to a recovery in China's exports, which... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Are part-time workers depressing wage growth? Growth in the share of part-time workers in Japan’s workforce is one factor being blamed for the recent sluggishness of wage growth. In reality, this shift has not had much of an impact on aggregate... 27th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Moderate business profits point to slower GDP growth The slowdown in the growth of business profits in the second quarter runs counter to the consensus view that stronger overall economic growth lies just around the corner. This supports our view that... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily The US stock market is unlikely to go from strength to strength 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What next for the S&P 500? Although the S&P 500 has broken above 2,000 this week for the first time, we doubt that the stock market will go from strength to strength. For now, we are sticking with our forecast that the index... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade growth still weak The volume of world trade edged up in June, thanks to stronger exports from developing economies. However, exports from advanced economies have continued to be very weak. Forward-looking indicators... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update No signs of contagion from Argentine debt saga The ongoing Argentine debt dispute continues to disrupt local markets, but so far there has been no contagion to the rest of the region. Equities have performed well so far in August, while it has... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Industrial rental growth is still a long way from its peak Industrial rental value growth is already running at a faster pace than at the peak of the 2004-08 upswing. But given a favourable demand and supply balance, as well as the comparatively low level of... 26th August 2014 · 1 min read
