UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Jul.) The Bank of England reported that mortgage approvals for house purchase contracted marginally in July. But with the disruption caused by the MMR fading and a strong economic backdrop, lending should... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Jul.) Net commercial property lending was negative for the 32 nd consecutive month in July. But on the ground the flow of credit has improved, and this should show up in the official data sooner rather than... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update August’s PMIs suggest growth in Central Europe slowed further Last month’s batch of manufacturing PMIs suggests that the recent slowdown in the Turkish economy may have bottomed out but it provides yet further evidence of weakening growth in Central Europe. 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombian tightening cycle nearing the end Colombian policymakers increased interest rates by 25bp to 4.50% on Friday but we think that the current tightening cycle is drawing to a close. The pace of economic growth is likely to slow over the... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Manufacturing recovery intact, but headwinds persist While the region's manufacturing sector recovery remains intact, the August PMIs for Emerging Asia are a reminder that a strong and sustainable pick-up is still some way away. 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Aug.) Today's PMI readings suggest that economic activity softened further last month. That said, policymakers are rolling out new measures to offset some of this downwards pressure and ensure a gradual... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch How important is the second sales tax hike to the BoJ? Despite the recent run of weak data, the Bank of Japan may strike a more positive tone about the economy at its meeting this week, while leaving policy settings unchanged. This would dampen hopes of... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q2) The Ministry of Finance's survey on corporate finances suggests that there won't be major adjustments to non-residential investment in the second estimate of Q2 GDP. In the meantime, April's... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Asian growth could finally be set for a pick-up Emerging Asia's GDP data for the second quarter proved to be a mixed bag, with most economies in South East Asia picking up, but the Newly Industrialised Economies having some problems. We expect some... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Wage cost inflation likely fell to record low Although some evidence suggests that hourly wages may have risen more quickly recently, labour productivity has also risen as well, resulting in smaller increases in unit labour costs, or slower wage... 1st September 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q2 2014) After slowing more than previously thought in Q1, Canada's economy rebounded more strongly than expected in Q2, posting annualised GDP growth of 3.1%. The 17.8% rebound in exports mainly reflects the... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update What are the prospects for wage inflation? With the important exception of the US, we expect wage inflation in the major advanced economies to remain subdued in the coming year or two, even as labour markets approach “full employment”. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Energy Watch Geopolitical tensions no barrier to lower oil prices Recent headlines have focused on the latest escalation in the conflict in Ukraine or with the Islamic State. However, these conflicts have had little impact on oil output in key producers. In this... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Renminbi regaining lost ground Renminbi appreciation is back in full swing but upwards momentum in Chinese equities appears to have faltered in August following a string of weak data releases. 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Drop back into recession ups the pressure on Brazil policymakers Second quarter GDP data showing that Brazil has fallen back into recession will add to pressure on the central bank to loosen policy in order to support the ailing economy. But we suspect that policy... 29th August 2014 · 1 min read
