Europe Economics Update How worried should we be about Germany? The decline in German GDP in Q2 is not as alarming as it might appear given that it was causedpartly by temporary factors. But while the economy should return to growth in Q3 and beyond, itseems clear... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Can China’s steel producers export their way out of trouble? Despite weak domestic demand, China’s steel industry continues to raise output. Exports are providing an outlet for some of the oversupply, but this is only a partial solution. Prices will remain... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2 Prov.) The stagnation of the euro-zone economy in the second quarter further underlinedthe need for the European Central Bank (ECB) to take bolder policy action to addressthe continued weakness of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update When will CEE office occupier demand take off? The recent fall in office take-up across the main CEE markets is a concern given the region’s large office development pipelines. But at the same time, the recent strength of office-based employment... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response RICS Residential Market Survey (Jul.) New buyer enquiries contracted marginally in July according to the RICS survey, which should help cool house price inflation. But the stock of property on the market is still very low, and price... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 GDP data show recovery in CEE losing momentum Softer growth across much of Central and Eastern Europe in Q2 is likely to be attributed to spillovers from the crisis in Ukraine but, while this may have weighed on business confidence in some... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Further rate cuts in Korea unlikely Today’s interest rate cut by the Bank of Korea (BoK) is unlikely to mark the start of a prolonged period of policy easing. In fact, with growth likely to bounce back strongly in the second half of the... 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jun.) While machinery orders bounced back in June, their overall weakness last quarter suggests that business investment may have fallen more than initially reported. 14th August 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Why has remortgaging activity not recovered? Despite most remortgages not being subject to the MMR regulations, remortgaging activity is still very subdued. It is a lack of demand for remortgages that is holding back the market, and that will... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Jul.) The Teranet-National Bank national composite house price index showed that house price inflation accelerated somewhat to 4.9% in July, from 4.4% in June. The sales-to-listings ratio suggests that... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Jul.) The weakness of retail sales in July is at odds with the recent acceleration in income growth, rises in household wealth and greater availability of credit, which all suggest that the outlook for... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Jun.) June’s euro-zone industrial production data confirmed that industry’s recovery has faltered and suggested that the sector may have dragged on GDP growth in Q2. 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Greek GDP (Q2) Greece’s Q2 GDP release suggests that the economy is slowly emerging from the abyss. But growth remains too weak for the country to reduce its huge public debt without significantly more outside help... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish slowdown to trigger further pressure for rate cuts Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s election victory and intrigue about the composition of the government have dominated the headlines in Turkey. But the fact that the economy has slowed sharply over the past few... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update A softer start to Q3 Today’s data on lending, output and spending for July suggest that, after a strong Q2, China’s economy slowed at the start of Q3. Policymakers are likely to continue to provide targeted support to... 13th August 2014 · 1 min read
