Capital Daily Rally in Italy’s government bonds has probably come to an end 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Focus Is Sweden the Nordic Japan? Fears that Sweden might be about to enter a Japanese-style “lost decade” of deflation and stagnation are not entirely without foundation. But we think that Sweden should be able to avoid such an... 2nd July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update More gloom for Brazil’s manufacturers June’s business surveys suggest that manufacturing in Brazil is doing little more than stagnating. By contrast, the outlook for Mexican manufacturers is much brighter – the latest survey data suggest... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Argentina: Default another headwind to economic recovery Following a failure to make an interest payment on restructured bonds yesterday, the Argentine government appears to be heading towards another default unless it can reach agreement with holdouts... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing ends Q2 on a strong note Business surveys point to a reasonably strong expansion of global manufacturing activity in June and are consistent with a rebound in world GDP growth in Q2. However, while manufacturing output... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update High prices cause surge in soybean planting Large stocks of corn, high crop quality ratings and a surge in soybean planting have pulled down grain and soybean prices in recent months. In the absence of a period of adverse weather over the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) The ISM manufacturing index was broadly unchanged in June and is still consistent with annualised GDP growth rebounding to almost 3% in the second quarter. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (May 14) The monthly pace of house price gains slowed for the fourth consecutive month in May, to just 0.1% m/m. Looking ahead, loosening housing market supply conditions will keep house price inflation... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Too early to stop worrying about deflation (except in the US) In its Annual Report, published at the weekend, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) argued that “the risk of persistent and self-perpetuating disinflationary pressure is low” and that the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Little relief in sight for Italian households May’s rise in Italy’s unemployment rate highlights the dire economic situation of households. And with inflation now slowing sharply, the country’s public debt ratio risks rising inexorably higher. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack Iraq crisis boosts oil prices Industrial commodity prices were supported by stronger Chinese data in June, whilst further unrest in the Middle East lifted oil prices and boosted safe-haven demand for gold. However, the supply... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update June PMIs suggest Central Europe’s recovery is losing steam Last month’s manufacturing PMI data for Emerging Europe were disappointing. The recovery in Central Europe appears to have lost momentum in Q2, while the data provide further evidence that the Turkish... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Risks remain despite recent calm Financial markets in the emerging world have rallied in the past quarter as fears about the impact of Fed tapering and a hard landing in China have eased. But while the latest Capital Economics Risk... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Unemployment (May) & Final Manu. PMI (Jun.) May's unemployment data highlighted that the euro-zone’s economic recovery is still too weak to erode the significant amount of slack in the labour market. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response CIPS/Markit Report on Manufacturing (Jun.) & Productivity (Q1) June’s CIPS report on manufacturing suggested that the recovery in UK industry is going from strength to strength. For now at least, even the stronger pound appears to be doing little to slow the... 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update June PMIs point to sluggish recovery The June PMIs for Emerging Asia continue to point towards a slow and uneven recovery. Softening new orders are a reminder that a strong rebound is unlikely to materialise any time soon. 1st July 2014 · 1 min read
