Global Economics Update Euro-zone missing out on global recovery Preliminary business surveys for June suggest that global manufacturing activity is expanding at a moderate pace, thanks to a rebound in growth in the US and stabilisation in both China and Japan... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (May) The strong rise in existing home sales in May probably reflects the milder weather and the 35 basis point decline in 30-year mortgage interest rates so far in 2014. We expect the improvement in home... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update PMIs highlight France’s stuttering recovery The French economy is probably faring a little better than June’s dreadful PMIs suggest. But more austerity and weak competitiveness mean that it will continue to weigh on the euro-zone’s recovery. 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Where next in Argentina’s debt dispute? A series of statements from Buenos Aires over the weekend provide hope that Argentina’s government might be able to find common ground with “holdout” creditors. Reaching a mutually agreeable solution... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Kenya joins the eurobond rush Sub-Saharan Africa’s eurobond markets hit the headlines again in June when Kenya became the latest country to issue dollar-denominated debt. With much of the region continuing to enjoy low yields by... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Bulgarian bank failure puts region’s lenders back in spotlight The nationalisation of the troubled Bulgarian bank, Corporate Commercial Bank, over the weekend has put attention back onto Emerging Europe’s fragile financial sector. Given the rise in non-performing... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Markets jolted by MPC’s new tone The MPC’s recent hawkish comments have helped to push near-term interest rate expectations higher and have fuelled a further rally in sterling to its strongest trade-weighted level since October 2008... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update PMI data suggest only limited support for commodity prices Despite the rebound in the PMIs in both China and Japan in June, prospects for industrial commodity prices remain weak for now. Sluggish euro-zone manufacturing activity and the downturn in China’s... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey (Q2) The latest Credit Conditions survey suggests that lending activity in both the residential and commercial property sectors remains pretty well controlled. Admittedly, borrower demand is improving... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada's equity market rally likely to simmer down The recent rally in Canada's benchmark stock market index, which has risen by 24% over the past 12 months, took it to a new record high last week. What's more impressive from our vantage point is the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: pace of policy tightening to remain gradual Policymakers in Colombia hiked interest rates by another 25bp to 4% on Friday night and we expect the tightening cycle to remain gradual. Inflation is unlikely to be a major headache, while we expect... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMIs suggested that the euro-zone recovery only gained a little momentum in Q2 and highlighted the continued divergence between France and Germany. 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response HSBC/Markit Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) Today's PMI reading is the latest sign that downwards pressure on the manufacturing sector has eased as a result of the government's targeted measures, which have helped to support domestic demand. 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Flash Manufacturing PMI (June) June's flash manufacturing PMI confirms that the economy has stabilised after the slump caused by the consumption tax hike. 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed too complacent on inflation We don’t agree with Janet Yellen’s view that the recent rise in inflation is just noise. Instead, it is clear to us that a widespread strengthening in price pressures in areas as diverse as rents... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
