UK Economics Weekly Maradona Carney turns full circle The trickle of warnings of a not-too-distant policy tightening from the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) turned into something more closely resembling a flood last week. Ultimately, however, it is the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Weak wage growth adds to deflation risks Data last week revealed that euro-zone labour costs growth fell to just 0.9% in Q1, adding to evidence of deflationary pressure in the region. The fall in wage growth has not been confined to the... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Underlying price pressure has eased dramatically April’s consumption tax hike has made it more difficult to assess the strength of consumer price pressures. But different approaches that make allowance for the one-off impact of the tax increase lead... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Diesel price deregulation an early test for Modi in India Diesel subsidies in India have burned a sizeable hole in the government’s pocket over the past few years. But the stage appears to be set for a full deregulation of diesel prices in the coming months... 23rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (May) The stronger than expected pick-up in both headline and core inflation indicates that inflation will overshot the Bank of Canada's previous forecast assumptions. Since a large part of this is due to... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Three oil price scenarios from the Iraq crisis The situation in Iraq could play out in many ways. In a “good” scenario, the crisis would ease soon and there could even be some positive fallout for the region. (Our current forecast that Brent will... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian economy on course for another disappointing quarter May’s raft of Russian activity data suggests that, following a weak Q1, the economy hasn’t made a meaningful recovery in Q2. The rebound in the manufacturing sector has continued to gain momentum, but... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor GDP growth steady in Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that economic growth stabilised in Q2 and on this basis we expect official GDP growth to come in close to Q1’s 7.4% y/y. The weakness in real estate is... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Higher demand should boost US lumber prices We expect US lumber prices to rise over the next year as US house building picks up pace after the extremely cold winter. This should more than offset the impact of slowing property investment in... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Rapid jobs gains fuel spending growth The recovery in consumer spending seems to be gathering pace thanks to rising confidence and strong employment growth. Admittedly, there are still signs of fragility – real earnings are still not... 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Public Finances (May) May’s public borrowing figures contained tentative signs that the coalition is struggling to bring down the deficit in line with the fiscal plans this year. 20th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank opening its eyes to weakening economy As we expected given signs of a slowdown in the energy sector, the Norges Bank pushed back its first projected rate hike until 2016. Although the krone weakened on the news, the economic slowdown may... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Rapid Q1 growth unlikely to be sustained Strong government spending ahead of Colombia’s presidential elections appears to have supported rapid growth of 6.4% y/y in Q1, but we doubt that the current pace of expansion will be sustained. As... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Household financial leverage still dangerously high While Canadian policymakers will be somewhat relieved to learn that household financial leverage hasn't risen any higher this year, it hasn't fallen either, meaning that heavily indebted households... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s consumer boom built on weak foundations The strength of the recovery in Hungarian consumer spending has taken many, ourselves included, by surprise and retail sales are now rising at their fastest pace in a decade. However, this has been... 19th June 2014 · 1 min read
