Commodities Update Chinese commodity imports are likely to fall further China’s imports of all the main commodities fell sharply in May. This suggests that slower economic growth and the attempts to clamp down on financing deals are starting to have a negative impact on... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports strengthen a touch, manufacturers outperform Emerging Market (EM) export growth picked up a little in April and the rebound in Chinese exports last month suggests that it has since strengthened further. In aggregate, EM export growth is still... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico: Improving inflation outlook to keep interest rates low An improving outlook for inflation in Mexico suggests that Friday’s surprise interest rate cut is unlikely to be reversed in a hurry. We expect interest rates to remain at their new historic low of 3... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Partial RRR cut illustrates reluctance to ease policy Details just published on the People’s Bank website about the targeted required reserve ratio cut that was first announced in late May underline how reluctant policymakers remain to pursue across-the... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy appears to have weakened at the start of Q2 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the Saudi economy started the second quarter on a weaker note as growth in the oil sector slowed and activity in the non-oil economy remained sluggish by past standards. 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Europe's deflation risk not as great as the euro-zone's There are growing concerns that, as the euro-zone flirts with deflation, Central Europe could suffer a similar fate. However, the drivers of the deflation threat in the region are different and seem... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Turkey’s rebalancing than meets the eye Turkish Q1 GDP data due tomorrow are likely toreinforce optimism in the markets that the economyis undergoing a smooth rebalancing, with netexports taking over from domestic demand as themain driver... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Economy Watchers Survey & Consumer Confidence (May) The improvements in consumer confidence and the Economy Watchers Survey last month add to the evidence that the slump after the consumption tax hike is unlikely to last long. 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Trade (May.) The unexpected contraction in imports last month probably overstates the weakness in domestic demand. While we believe that the cooling property sector is indeed weighing on commodity demand, May's... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Policymakers still resisting calls for broad stimulus In the past few weeks, policymakers have adopted an approach to supporting the economy that is the opposite of that followed in 2008. Then, banks were encouraged to flood the economy with credit. Now... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q1 Revised) & Current Account (April) The second estimate of Q1 GDP confirmed that the recovery in business investment continued last quarter. Meanwhile, the current account returned to surplus after the sales tax hike as imports plunged. 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB still at the back of the pack While the ECB made a number of announcements last week, the policies involved are not as bold as they might seem. The interest rate cuts were clearly tiny and the decision not to sterilise bond... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily US Treasuries vulnerable to a tightening of the labour market 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Lower Canadian dollar unlikely to catapult economy The Canadian dollar's decline, which began about a year ago, has reinforced the Bank of Canada's prior view that it's long-awaited export recovery is finally set to go. Over the past year, however... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly What has the ECB done for us? On the face of it, the new policy measures unveiled by the European Central Bank (ECB) last week should have positive effects on the UK’s principal trading partner and hence on the UK’s own growth... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
