US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (May) They say that the third time is the charm. Let's hope so for the ISM's sake. The ISM has realised that not only did it make a crucial “software error” in its seasonal adjustments but, even once it had... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (May 14) Although the latest figures showed further signs of subdued growth in broad money and particularly bank lending, we doubt that this is a sign the economic recovery will lose steam soon. Indeed, it... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Update Why we are still betting on renminbi appreciation The People’s Bank has succeeded over the past few weeks in shifting expectations for the renminbi’s future path while also scaling back its foreign exchange accumulation. At first glance the data... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Manufacturing PMI points to further weakness in Brazil Today’s manufacturing PMI data for May add to the evidence that the Brazilian economy continued to struggle in the second quarter. Meanwhile, although the US ISM manufacturing index unexpectedly fell... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone Fiscal Monitor (May) Although progress is still slow, the latest euro-zone fiscal data provided more evidence that peripheral governments are gradually strengthening their fiscal positions. 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus What next for the US housing market? The US housing market will recover from its current soft patch to post strong gains in home sales and housing starts over the next couple of years. By contrast house price growth will slow, but this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Chart Pack A more stable Chinese economy supports prices Energy and industrial commodity prices were boosted by stronger US economic data in May and signs that China’s economy stabilised in the second quarter. Meanwhile, the supply outlook for a number of... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Household Borrowing Monitor (May) April’s money and credit figures suggest that new mortgage rules have stifled the recovery in housing market activity. But with real incomes rising and confidence strengthening, a gradual recovery in... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Less to Russia’s industry rebound than meets the eye The rebound in Russian industrial production has taken many, including us, by surprise and has been interpreted by some as a sign that a weaker ruble has started to provide support to industry... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Apr.14) According to the Bank of England mortgage approvals fell again in April, and are now 17% below their peak at the start of the year. Some of the decline is likely to reverse once the disruption caused... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Report on Manuf. (May) & Mortgage Approvals (Apr.) The latest data on the manufacturing sector and household borrowing has provided more encouraging evidence that the economic recovery is shifting away from its excessive dependence on housing and... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Apr.14) Net commercial property lending flows were negative again in April. But April’s fall was the smallest since June last year. Indeed, there is little doubt that a gradual improvement in credit... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia: Gradual interest rate hikes to continue, for now Colombian policymakers have indicated that they expect interest rates to continue rising gradually over the coming months. As such, we are revising up our forecast. But with growth set to slow and... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update What's really behind the drop in long-term Treasury yields? According to the minutes of late-April’s US FOMC meeting, “some market participants reportedly ... revised down their estimate of the average real federal funds rate over the longer term, reflecting... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish PMI may be overly pessimistic At first glance, the sharp fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economy has lost some steam, perhaps due to spillovers from the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. However, it’s... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
