Emerging Markets Economics Focus From turbulence to tranquillity: are EM markets now too complacent? After a choppy 2013, financial markets have turned optimistic over the outlook for EMs in recent months. In many ways this makes sense. We were always of the view that last year’s concerns that Fed... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update May PMIs point to slow-going recovery The May PMIs for Emerging Asia were a mixed bag. However, solid new orders suggest Asia's manufacturing sectors should at least continue grinding out steady growth. 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Official Manufacturing PMI (May.) A third successive pick-up in the official PMI provides further evidence that conditions in manufacturing are improving, thanks to warming foreign demand and a rebound in infrastructure investment... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Capital Expenditure (Q1) The Ministry of Finance's survey on corporate finances confirmed that the recovery in business investment continued last quarter. 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly South East Asia losing its shine The slowdown in GDP growth in South East Asia in recent quarters represents something of a fall from grace for the region, which until recently was a rare bright spot in the global economy. With the... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack GDP growth slowed in Q1, likely to remain sluggish First quarter GDP data released over the past month suggest that the region’s economy slowed further at the start of this year, with growth dipping to just 2.0% y/y in Q1, down from 2.2% y/y in Q4... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Are gilts priced for a slowdown? On the face of it, the steady fall in gilt yields this year suggests that markets might be expecting the economic recovery to lose some momentum soon or that safe-haven demand from overseas might have... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Have investors really lowered their expectations for real rates? 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Falling long-term interest rates not just a Canadian story The recent decline in Government of Canada bond yields is consistent with market participants revising down their longer-term expectations of the future path of the overnight policy interest rate... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Falling Treasury yields a new conundrum While we don't have a singular explanation for the downward trend in Treasury yields, we are still confident that yields will eventually rebound. We expect the 10-year Treasury yield to recover to 3.0... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Can the ECB weaken the euro? While the ECB looks certain to implement further policy action at this week’s Governing Council meeting – probably in the form of an interest rate cut and measures to stimulate bank lending – this... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Is Japan's fiscal position really that bad? Japan is widely known to have the highest gross government debt level relative to the size of its economy in the developed world but some commentators have argued that the net debt picture is much... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Emerging Asia Markets Monitor (May) The election of Narendra Modi in India has provided a boost to the rupee and the Indian stock market. In contrast, the military coup in Thailand and anti-China protests in Vietnam have weighed on... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Brazilian growth slows as consumer spending falters The slowdown in Brazilian GDP growth, from 2.2% y/y in Q4 to 1.9% y/y in Q1, is further evidence that Latin America’s largest economy is still struggling for momentum and could increase pressure on... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP (Q1 2014) Although Canada's slowdown in the first quarter can be partly blamed on bad weather, the underlying trends suggest that the economy lost some momentum in exports and investment. While this should turn... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Weak global growth unlikely to prevent rebound in US yields Canada continues to lead the recovery among the G7 economies after a relatively shallow recession. However, the US is only just behind, despite stumbling in Q1, and looks in better shape. Softness... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
