US Data Response Uni. of Mich. Consumer Confidence (May) The fall in consumer confidence in May comes at the end of a week in which we also received weak retail sales and industrial production numbers. But we think that the underlying trend in economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexico shifts towards a sweet spot Tempting though it is to blame the recent weakness of Mexico’s economy on problems north of the border, the truth is that many of the factors that have weighed on growth over the past six months or so... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Apr.) The strong rise in housing starts in April will ease fears that the recent soft patch in housing market activity will turn into an extended slowdown. 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Strong BJP mandate could be a game-changer for India For the first time in 30 years, it appears that a national government in India will be free from the chains of coalition politics, giving it a strong platform from which to launch much-needed economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth stuck in the slow lane Having shown signs of picking up towards the end of last year, growth across the emerging world seems to have slowed once again in recent months. The latest slowdown has been due to several factors... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update All oils are not created equal The surge in US oil stocks on the Gulf coast means that the pipeline constraints which had been holding back the price of WTI now look largely to have been resolved. However, excess supplies of light... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q1 14) Hong Kong’s economy slowed sharply in Q1, due to a slump in exports. However, the slowdown is likely to prove temporary, and we expect growth to rebound over the coming quarters as the global economic... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
DM Valuations Monitor How strong is the euro? The euro does not appear to be significantly overvalued despite the ECB’s concerns about its strength. The real effective exchange rate (REER) is equal to its ten-year average and only slightly above... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Malaysia’s strong GDP growth raises scope for rate hikes Malaysia’s growth picked up strongly in the first quarter of 2014, reinforcing our view that the central bank (BNM) is likely to begin raising its policy rate at its next meeting in July. Although... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Trade (Mar.) March’s euro-zone trade data confirm that the strong level of the euro continues to act as a significant headwind for euro-zone exporters. This will furnish the ECB with yet another reason to take... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Long-run prospects remain upbeat despite growing political concerns The apparent re-emergence of political risk in a number of countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) over the past couple of months has led some commentators to question the region’s longer-term growth... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile: Interest rates on hold for the rest of 2014 The Chilean central bank (BCC) left interest rates unchanged last night and, despite weak economic growth, our long-held view that rates will end the year at 4% looks increasingly likely. Elevated... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Focus Is Japan’s private sector ready to releverage? A key aim of the BoJ’s QQE programme is to lower real interest rates in a bid to encourage firms and households to borrow and spend more and thereby eliminate the spare capacity that underpins... 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Three compelling reasons for the Bank of Japan to ease further 16th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Delinquencies (Q1 14) Last year’s rise in mortgage interest rates may have dented home sales and housing starts, but it has not dented the downward trend in the number of US households suffering mortgage payment problems... 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q1 14) Private housing starts have made a very strong start to the year. Unfortunately, various constraints suggest that this pace of growth will be difficult to sustain. 15th May 2014 · 1 min read
