US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr 14.) The rise in the annual growth rate of our measure of the M3* money stock, to a nine month high of 5.8% in April from 5.5% in March, is consistent with the recent rebound in core CPI inflation to... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Cocoa prices will fall unless El Niño disrupts production We expect cocoa prices to fall back in 2014-15 as market expectations of surging consumption growth appear misplaced. Indeed, we expect the market to return to a small surplus in 2013/14 after two... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update The “Taper Tantrum” one year on A year on from the start of the so-called “taper tantrum”, in which concerns about the withdrawal of monetary stimulus by the Fed sent shock waves through EM financial markets, the vulnerabilities... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile GDP: stronger than expected but still weak Chile’s economy performed better than expected in the first quarter of this year, but the bigger picture is that growth has slowed markedly from the 5.5-6.0% rates of recent years. As the commodities... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Markets' faith in Portugal seems misplaced Portugal’s clean exit from its bail-out at the weekend was soured by the news that the economy contracted in the first quarter. The GDP figures are not as worrying as they seem, but the Portuguese... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Dismal Q1 suggests Finland will stagnate at best in 2014 The 0.4% fall in Finland’s trend output indicator over Q1 is a clear indication that the country is struggling to exit recession. We expect the Finnish economy to stagnate this year, undermining... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thailand’s economic prospects hinge on political situation Prolonged political uncertainty in Thailand has clearly taken a heavy toll on the economy, which contracted in the first quarter of the year. Unless a resolution to the political crisis is found soon... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Bank of Japan Watch On-target inflation forecasts don't preclude more easing The Bank of Japan will most likely leave policy settings unchanged at the upcoming May meeting, and Board members’ sanguine views on the economy suggest that the chances of additional near-term easing... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing correction only a matter of timing While the recent strength of Canada's housing market has been astounding, the regional breakdown reveals that it has begun to fray at the edges. With house prices already declining in some smaller... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Mar.) The surge in machinery orders in March suggests that the recovery in business investment remains on track. 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Economic outlook remains positive We are unconcerned by the more mixed data for April since the upward trend in sales and production is still firmly in place. More generally, the improving survey evidence points to a pick-up in... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Is the MPC's view on slack still plausible? May’s Bank of England Inflation Report proved to be a blow for those predicting that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) would signal its intention to raise interest rates soon. The MPC stood by its... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly German engine can’t power euro-zone recovery While the German economy expanded by an impressive 0.8% in Q1, this failed to spur growth elsewhere in the euro-zone and the region's GDP rose by just 0.2%. Possible explanations for this are the fact... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Is a credit bubble building in the Philippines? The surge in credit that has been going on across much of Emerging Asia since the global financial crisis has been getting some well-deserved media attention recently. But while we have been flagging... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What to expect from post-tax hike data If Japan’s past experience is any guide, the next few weeks will deliver a run of downbeat data reflecting a plunge in domestic demand after the consumption tax hike. In fact, many indicators have... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Dismal Q1 suggests Finland will stagnate at best in 2014 The 0.4% fall in Finland’s trend output indicator over Q1 is a clear indication that the country is struggling to exit recession. We expect the Finnish economy to stagnate this year, undermining... 19th May 2014 · 1 min read
