UK Commercial Property Update Net selling by overseas investors not a major cause for concern A recent modest sell-off by overseas investors in UK commercial property may well prove to be a blip. But even if it does signal the start of a new weaker trend, demand from UK-based investing... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Chart Pack Housing market sending out mixed messages There were further indications that housing market activity is at least no longer accelerating in April, with mortgage approvals dropping for the second consecutive month and some measures of house... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Apr.14) The latest Senior Loan Officer survey showed that banks expect household loan demand to weaken sharply in the second quarter. Borrowing is highly likely to slow now that the consumption tax hike has... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Teranet-National Bank House Prices (Apr.) Although the Teranet measure of house price inflation ticked up to 4.9% in April, from 4.6%, the earlier decline in existing home sales suggests some moderation in house price gains this year. Our... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa GDP Tracker suggests sharp slowdown in Q1 Our GDP Tracker suggests that the South African economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly five years in Q1, with annualised GDP growth slumping to around 0.2% q/q from 3.8% q/q in Q4. 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Colombia Election Watch – major reforms unlikely (again) The expected re-election of Juan Manuel Santos as Colombia’s president is good news for peace talks with the FARC, but will probably mean that major economic reforms to boost the competitiveness of... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Bank of England Inflation Report (May) May’s fairly dovish Inflation Report might go some way to cool expectations that the Monetary Policy Committee will raise interest rates as soon as the first quarter of next year. 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Market may be too quick to price in Russia rate cuts The recent rebound in the ruble has led the market to price in interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Russia (CBR) over the coming months. We think this is premature. Leaving aside the fact that... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Mar.) March’s euro-zone industrial production figures confirmed that industry has made a weak start to 2014, underscoring the fragility of the recovery both in the sector and in the euro-zone economy as a... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Labour Market Data (Mar./Apr 14.) While the economic recovery is creating jobs at a rapid pace, there still appears to be plenty of slack in the labour market which is keeping a lid on pay growth. 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Will India really deliver equity-friendly reforms? The prospect of a new government delivering economic reform in India has provided a substantial boost to the country’s stock market. Although we are also optimistic that a new government will make... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egypt’s public finances still dire, but default risk seems limited Egypt has one of the worst fiscal positions in the world, but the risk of default is lower than some seem to think. Funding from the Gulf, coupled with a domestic banking sector willing to purchase... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Tight fiscal policy another reason to expect Australian slowdown Australia's budget included a range of measures to rein in the fiscal deficit. The shift to tighter fiscal policy comes at a time when the economy is growing below trend and is facing a sharp fall in... 14th May 2014 · 1 min read
China Economics Focus Where is China heading? China’s economic growth is more likely to slow over the next couple of years than to accelerate, with the property sector in particular appearing on the cusp of a correction. But policymakers have... 13th May 2014 · 1 min read
