Canada Economics Update Federal election results supportive to economy The Federal election results should be supportive for equity markets, the Canadian dollar and business investment. A pro-business majority Conservative government may also look to forge new bilateral... 3rd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed's survey shows diverging demand for loans The Fed's latest survey of Senior Loan Officers shows a rapidly widening divergence between the strengthening demand for commercial loans and the falling demand for residential mortgages. 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Apr.) Today's data releases show that while the manufacturing sector is still leading the recovery, the construction sector remains mired in recession. 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Housing bubble a national problem The latest Teranet National Bank house price report, released last week, provided a timely counterbalance to the growing belief that Canada's housing boom is being driven solely by Chinese purchases... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still too hopeful on growth Even after the downward revision announced at last week's first ever post-policy meeting press briefing, the Fed's new forecasts for economic growth still look a bit optimistic. In the light of the... 2nd May 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Feb.) After several months of very strong growth, the 0.2% m/m decline in Canada monthly GDP in February is not a major concern. We had anticipated a drop back and even the consensus forecast was for no... 29th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Limited progress Our econometric model suggests that jobs growth was a little bit weaker in April, with payrolls increasing by around 175,000, down from the average rise of 200,000 in the previous two months. This may... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q1 1st Estimate) The slowdown in first-quarter GDP growth to 1.8% annualised, from 3.1% in the final quarter of last year, was due principally to the surge in energy prices, adverse weather and a sizeable drop in... 28th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in no hurry to tighten policy In his first post-FOMC meeting press conference, Chairman Ben Bernanke gave the impression that the Fed is in no hurry to tighten monetary policy. 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q1) The further decline in the homeownership rate in the first quarter provides yet more evidence that Americans are now less able and less willing to buy a home. The flipside is that the resulting... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Mar.) Although March's data on durable goods orders show that industry is still by far the best performing part of the economy, business investment appears to have ground to a halt. This is one reason why... 27th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Focus America may yet embrace trade protection Trade protection is far from an ideal policy, and indeed it carries serious dangers, but in current circumstances it may offer America the only way out of its difficulties. 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response House Prices (Feb.) House prices have started to drop at a faster pace and on some indices are now falling at rates not seen since the financial crisis. In contrast to most forecasters, we always thought that prices... 26th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Mar.) We are hopeful that the increase in new home sales in March marks the end of the downward trend that had taken sales to a record low. But with existing homes being sold at much more competitive prices... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Economy vulnerable to a commodities correction Sharply higher commodity prices and a runaway Canadian currency are boosting Canada's terms of trade, a key source of growth in incomes and therefore domestic spending. In some cases, specific... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly US credit status will remain under threat There are some good reasons why S&P's decision to put America's AAA credit rating on negative watch made more of a splash in the media than in the markets. Admittedly, the fiscal position in the US is... 25th April 2011 · 1 min read
