US Data Response Employment Report (Oct.) October's Employment Report has pluses and minuses but, on balance, it is positive. Non-farm payrolls increased by a modest 80,000 last month, down from a revised 158,000 gain in September. 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Oct.) October's employment figures cruelly dashed any optimism that may have built up after the surprisingly good performance in September. Employment fell by 54,000 last month, reversing most of the 60,900... 4th November 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Fed in wait and see mode The Fed opted to stay on the sidelines today. Most probably because FOMC members want more time to judge how effective the Operation Twist programme announced at the last meeting in September has been... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Homeownership & Vacancy Rates (Q3) The modest increase in the rental vacancy rate in the third quarter does little to alter our view that rental yields will soon rise above 5.5%, comfortably beating the yields available on Treasuries... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Oct.) The fact that mortgage applications for home purchase fell again in October, despite 30-year fixed mortgage rates touching fresh lows, underlines our long held position that the demand for housing... 2nd November 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Oct.) There was little in October's ISM manufacturing survey to suggest that the US economy has moved any closer towards another recession. But equally, there were no real signs that economic growth is... 1st November 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Aug.) The 0.3% m/m increase in real GDP in August was solely due to the continuing rebound in energy production, which is still recovering from the disruptions in the spring caused by bad weather and... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Faster GDP growth won't be sustained The acceleration in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 1.3%, seemed to make a mockery of fears that emerged early in the quarter that the economy was entering a recession. Nevertheless... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly New forecast consensus still too high Although most private-sector forecasters have revised down their GDP forecasts for Canada, they still seem too high to us. The latest surveys show that consensus expectations for real GDP growth over... 31st October 2011 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Don't blame small firms Our econometric model, which is based on a wide range of indicators, suggests that non-farm payroll employment rose by around 75,000 in October. That would be broadly similar to the increases seen in... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response GDP (Q3 1st Estimate) The acceleration in third-quarter GDP growth to 2.5% annualised, from 1.3%, would seem to make a mockery of fears that emerged early in the quarter that the economy was entering a recession... 28th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Fed still looking for ways to boost policy at the zero bound Only five weeks after the Fed announced its plan to extend the average maturity of its Treasury holdings and to reinvest principal payments from maturing mortgage-backed securities (MBS) holdings back... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Sep.) Even after the 5.7% m/m rebound in new home sales to 313,000 annualised in September, from 296,000 the month before, purchases are still close to a record low and only a quarter of what they were... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods Orders (Sep.) September's durable goods report is broadly consistent with our estimate that third-quarter GDP growth accelerated to 3.2% annualised, in part due to a sharp pick up in business investment (data due... 27th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller House Prices (Aug.) The latest report on house prices from Case-Shiller suggest that the housing market has been a little bit softer than previously thought. In seasonally adjusted terms, the Case-Shiller 20-City house... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada likely to cut policy rate next year The Bank of Canada now believes there is no need to remove any monetary policy stimulus anytime soon. Even this more dovish position, however, rests on the assumption that the global economy will... 26th October 2011 · 1 min read
