Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The latest retail sales data add to the evidence that real consumption growth slowed to around 2% annualised in the first quarter, less than half the 5% pace seen in the final three months of last... 21st April 2011 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack How bad was first-quarter GDP growth? The latest consensus forecast still puts first-quarter GDP growth as high as 1.8% annualised, whereas our own calculations suggest it was no higher than 1.0%. (See Chart below.) Furthermore, despite... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Mar.) March's existing home sales data provide more evidence that the economic recovery has bypassed the housing market. What's worse is that these figures may be overestimating the level of sales by up to... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Fed Watch Bernanke steps into brave new world The conclusion of next week's two-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday will mark the start of a brave new world, with Chairman Ben Bernanke scheduled to host the Fed's first post-meeting press conference. We... 20th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Price Index (Mar.) The pass through of higher commodity prices was behind the jump in CPI inflation, to 3.3% in March from 2.2% in February. Considering the temporary nature of these supply shocks, however, we still don... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Housing Starts (Mar.) The rebound in housing starts in March does little to hide the fact that homebuilding activity remains close to rock bottom. With both the demand and need for new homes still very low, housing starts... 19th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Hard to argue with negative outlook on US AAA credit rating Given the size of the US Federal deficit, which will be close to 10% of GDP this year, and the daunting medium-term fiscal challenges, it is hard to argue with S&P's decision to put a negative outlook... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Focus Is there light at the end of the tunnel? The combination of favourable valuations and exceptional affordability has made housing look like the bargain of a lifetime. But structural constraints on demand are preventing households from taking... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Bank of Canada's economic update overly optimistic The Bank of Canada's April Monetary Policy Report showed that it expects the global economy to grow at a steady pace over the next three years. Closer to home, it assumes growth in the US economy will... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly GDP growth slowed to a crawl in first quarter Every data release last week seemed to necessitate a further downward revision to our first-quarter GDP growth forecast. By the end of the week when the dust had finally settled, that estimate was... 18th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response CPI, Ind. Prod'n (Mar.) & Consumer Conf. (Apr.) The pass through of higher agricultural and commodity prices continued in March, with a 0.8% m/m increase in food prices and a 5.6% m/m increase in gasoline prices leading to a 0.5% m/m increase in... 15th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) March's 0.4% m/m increase in US retail sales provides only half the story as the headline numbers are not adjusted for the rise in prices. The key message is that real spending is hardly rising, if at... 13th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Bank of Canada in no rush to hike The policy statement from the Bank of Canada this morning signalled that it is still in no rush to raise interest rates. In particular, it offered no hint that a summer rate hike is coming, supporting... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Feb.) The narrowing in the trade deficit in February is a brief respite before the impact of the more recent surge in oil prices pushes the deficit sharply wider. In any case, it looks like net trade was a... 12th April 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Debate on corporate tax rates warms up The debate surrounding the merits of corporate tax cuts continued last week, with the Globe and Mail running a front page headline that claimed the reductions already put in place hadn't boosted... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed still a long way from raising rates Recent events have left our forecast that the Fed will not raise interest rates either this year or next out on a limb. But we are sticking to our guns. After all, this time last year a fading of the... 11th April 2011 · 1 min read
