US Economics Weekly Trade protection policies becoming more appealing Recent events in Washington suggest that, with fiscal policy largely tapped-out and monetary policy ineffective, trade protection policies are becoming more appealing. Import tariffs are not the first... 18th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Survey of Manufacturing (Aug.) The stronger than expected increase in manufacturing sales and growth in unfilled orders is encouraging news. This provides further evidence that the economy rebounded in the third quarter, with... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Sep.) The decent 1.1% m/m rise in retail sales in September shows that households are not completely down and out. Real consumption in the third quarter probably rose at an annualised rate of close to 2%... 15th October 2011 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update US government bonds still fundamentally sound The recent rise in 10-year US Treasury yields has taken them further away from our end-2011 forecast of around 1.5% (at the time of writing they are around 2.15%). But we continue to expect yields to... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Aug.) The widening in the bilateral trade deficit with China to a record high in August is only going to make the trade protection bill passed by the Senate this week more popular. With fiscal and monetary... 14th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Chart Pack Median mortgage just as cheap as median rent The previous declines in house prices and the more recent drop in mortgage rates to record lows have created an unusual situation in which the median monthly mortgage payment is more or less the same... 13th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Further signs of over-building September’s annualised housing starts of 205,900, combined with upward revisions to July and August, indicates that third quarter housing investment grew more strongly than we had expected. However... 12th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Is the US headed for recession? Our baseline view is still that the US economy will avoid a recession, albeit only narrowly. Furthermore, if there is a recession, we suspect it would be a fairly modest one because the most cyclical... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Is the loonie's downward trend set to continue? The downward trend in the Canadian dollar, or loonie, against the US dollar over the last two months is broadly consistent with the deterioration in the global economic outlook and the resulting slide... 11th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response Employment Report (Sep.) There is no hint in September's Employment Report that another recession is starting. Nevertheless, the 103,000 increase in non-farm payrolls last month is still consistent with what would normally be... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Labour Force Survey (Sep.) September's employment gain of 60,900 was a positive surprise, but the underlying details of the jobs report were less spectacular. Even so, it suggests that economic growth overall fared better in... 8th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Aug.) The 0.4% m/m decline in CoreLogic's measure of house prices in August may be the start of the renewed modest acceleration in price declines that we have been warning about. Prices may still stabilise... 7th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Applications (Sep.) September's mortgage applications figures suggest that the decrease in conforming mortgage loan limits at the start of this week won't significantly reduce mortgage demand. Nevertheless, the weak... 6th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Households less willing and less able to buy Recent evidence showing that fewer Americans see owning a home as a central part of the American Dream and that fewer have a credit score high enough to make that dream a reality supports our long... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Commodity price plunge threatens economic recovery Renewed concerns over Europe's fiscal crisis and the struggling US economy have triggered a sharp decline in commodity prices. Since peaking in April this year, the Bank of Canada's composite... 5th October 2011 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Sep.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 51.6 in September, from 50.6, demonstrates that the economy hasn't fallen off a cliff (at least not yet). But, at that level, the index is... 4th October 2011 · 1 min read
